I might be the only person who believes that fiscal/monetary policy did contribute meaningfully to inflation on the demand side; but that inflation was not a decisive electoral issue
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yes and this abstract does not show me where US *fiscal policy* contributed to global inflation (I'll grant that coordinated monetary policy had similar effects in these countries)
ie if fiscal policy was a *root cause* of inflation, how or did it also help rein it in?
A longstanding realignment of voters along cultural and education lines, for which the migrant crisis was a strong trigger in 2024. Which affected most of all Hispanic and Asian voters in cities
The FT did a great article about how every western incumbent government has lost the election regardless of political alignment. The only common factor in my mind is inflation and everyone just unhappy with the status quo
Not decisive meaning democrats would have lost even if inflation had been, say, 1-2pp lower for most of the last few years? I find it that hard to believe, but curious about your reasoning.
Yeah. 2016-2024 overall has been this period of realignment of voters for mostly cultural reasons, along educational lines but across race.
2024 specifically continues this trend for Hispanic and Asian voters, for which migration was a key trigger, but there were other race/gender associations
Interesting. I always thought the fact that most European incumbents were also deeply unpopular even with (slightly) weaker cultural concerns meant that inflation was likely a first order issue. But obviously there is no dispositive evidence either way.
I actually think cultural issues, immigration, etc are just as salient in Europe. One view is these are a set of essentially “post materialistic” considerations
Immigration yes, but for many aspects of the culture wars in the US I don't think this is true. For example, religious issues seem much less salient in political debates. Then again, the economic issues were also much more severe.
I'm also not sure which story is more bullish for dems.
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https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1080
ie if fiscal policy was a *root cause* of inflation, how or did it also help rein it in?
https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893
Also note there is no US data in the graph aside from the last dot.
2024 specifically continues this trend for Hispanic and Asian voters, for which migration was a key trigger, but there were other race/gender associations
I'm also not sure which story is more bullish for dems.