March 28th update: The expected spring decline has resumed, confirming %ED data. Overlay on the Feb model looks about as good it can over wiggly wastewater data. Latest WW estimates: 🔸275,000 new infections/day 🔸~1 in 120 currently infected - ThreadSky

jpweiland.bsky.social • 35 days ago

March 28th update:

The expected spring decline has resumed, confirming %ED data. Overlay on the Feb model looks about as good it can over wiggly wastewater data. Latest WW estimates:

🔸275,000 new infections/day
🔸~1 in 120 currently infected

Comments

finnpuppers.bsky.social•34 days ago

Thanks for continuing to update this! I appreciate you showing up during this horrific time

jpweiland.bsky.social•35 days ago

A more zoomed in view on the trajectory:

jpweiland.bsky.social•35 days ago

Regionally, all are in the "low" spread category, with the exception of the South, which has been stubbornly holding at moderate levels, mainly due to an almost absent early winter wave.

ginflo2.bsky.social•35 days ago

NYC COVID hospitalizations…

jpweiland.bsky.social•32 days ago

Thanks, but probably need to add some perspective here.. Last 2.5 years (does not include 2020/2021/2022 huge waves)

ginflo2.bsky.social•31 days ago

Indeed. Thank you. This is just hospitalizations too. We’ve never still been going up in March. Ever, outside of 2020. So yes compared to early years we are great but relative to the typical spring it certainly is not. Thank you for all that you do!

jpweiland.bsky.social•31 days ago

You're welcome! It is interesting that Region 2 (NY and NJ) are not following the quick decline seen in the surrounding states. NY/NJ have had lower cumulative numbers than their peers the last 9 months, so they may be playing catch up a bit unfortunately.

bitsy15.bsky.social•35 days ago

I have been trying to figure out why the region where I reside has remained high; thank you for providing a reasonable explanation! That's not what it looked like on the ground, though, but perhaps it was all flu.

braynesoopreme.bsky.social•35 days ago

Thank you for sharing every week! When is your next forecast expected to be published?

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