I was a grad student when the 2007 IPCC report came out, the two highest emissions pathways predicted warming of 3.4 or 4 degrees. "A bit less than 3C" is still too high, but thanks to activists, scientists, and policymakers we have brought the number down. Our climate future is still being written. - ThreadSky

jacquelyngill.bsky.social • 38 days ago

I was a grad student when the 2007 IPCC report came out, the two highest emissions pathways predicted warming of 3.4 or 4 degrees. "A bit less than 3C" is still too high, but thanks to activists, scientists, and policymakers we have brought the number down. Our climate future is still being written.

Reposted from Andrew Dessler

New post on The Climate Brink from Zeke @hausfath.bsky.social about our climate future. With current policies, we’re on track for a bit less than 3C, with 2030 NDCs we’re on track for about 2.5C, and with net zero pledges we’re on track for a bit less than 2C.
www.theclimatebrink.com/p/moving-awa...

Comments

sharonleetee.bsky.social•38 days ago

Welp, once Trumpublican legislators ditch all regulations all bets are off.

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

We still managed to bend the future away from the worst outcomes even despite Trump 1.0. And no matter what, the work dosn't stop.

sharonleetee.bsky.social•38 days ago

🤞🏼

mightyani.bsky.social•38 days ago

How do we avoid the 'worst outcomes' from being possible--and probable--even though they seem to have been abated for now?

mazepolypore.bsky.social•36 days ago

If you read Kim Stanley Robinson’s Ministry of the Future, the Children of Kali have the missing piece to a plausible path to wrest the curve away from those who loot and plunder our only home.

foodforests4life.bsky.social•36 days ago

zoesamuel.bsky.social•38 days ago

Keep going - and keep beating expectations for how fast the transition to clean energy happens.

brownsuddenly.bsky.social•38 days ago

The US is not the only country.

sharonleetee.bsky.social•38 days ago

And thank goodness for that.

thestinkfoot.bsky.social•38 days ago

It's good that we're not on the worst case scenario track, at least. Climate change is going to continue happening for at least a couple more decades, but every ton of CO2 we DON'T emit today makes everything a little bit better going forward. This isn't a problem that will be solved all at once.

safabee.is•37 days ago

"You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.” -Pirkei Avot

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•37 days ago

One of my favorite motivating quotes. Thank you!

pkf-157260.bsky.social•38 days ago

Progress, but is it enough and is it timely enough?

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

Every fraction of a degree matters (and translates to millions of lives) and that will always be true. There is no point at which we stop doing this work.

danambergstrom.bsky.social•38 days ago

2.5°C is crazy territory 😢😞

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

Absolutely. But it’s so much better than 4, 3.5, 3. And we can bring it down. We’re not locked in.

ilmastoekologia.bsky.social•38 days ago

How do we bring it down? A serious question.

I live near the arctic circle and we are close to the permafrost here. Once it starts tipping I really wonder do we humans have a way to untip it. And all the other tipping points that go off at 1,5 °C and onward to 2 °C. This aired on the national tele

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

We bring it down via a just transition off of fossil fuels. Policymakers, activists, and others have many pathways towards this goal at a range of different scales. I suggest following some climate starter packs here (@katharinehayhoe.com has a great one) to learn more about these initiatives.

ilmastoekologia.bsky.social•38 days ago

I am following some people (Hausfather, Leon Simons, Gavin Schmidt, James Hansen, Kevin Anderson) and there seems to be some unnerving disagreement even among scientist on what is going on. I am most resonating with @rupertread.bsky.social and @alexsteffen.bsky.social for their radical honesty.

rupertread.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thanks. This may help, too: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/01/extinction-rebellion-uk-net-zero-2025-climate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

danielbailey99.bsky.social•37 days ago

Not to dogpile this point too much, but it bears repeating that doom and denial have ever been the opposing sides of the same anti-climate-science coin.

Reality still hews closely to the central envelope of climate ensemble model runs. And that is a comforting thought.

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•37 days ago

Just because someone talks with certainty about an uncertain future doesn’t make them radically honest. The human brain finds uncertainty scary. For some people, believing we’ve lost is less scary than accepting that the future is still unwritten, which means we have work to do.

thewholeshebang.bsky.social•37 days ago

It's actually quite simple... We're functionally extinct.

Every metric measuring the health of the biosphere is off the charts... In the wrong direction.

PFAS, micro & nano plastics, aquifer depletion, global warming, global species decline... All are individual extinction events... + Lots more 🙃

jamesw228.bsky.social•38 days ago

Good thing that the USA is talking about cancelling it's climate measures before they really have an impact then 🙄

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

*taps the sign*

benjgeo.bsky.social•38 days ago

Being more pessimistic than you is not "distracting from. The work"

benjgeo.bsky.social•38 days ago

Or obstructing or whatever

clargee.bsky.social•38 days ago

Intense thanks for the work you do, and the way you speak about it 🙏

stomachtax.bsky.social•38 days ago

2C is gonna be nothing less than complete mayhem and societal collapse, but yeah I’ve got a daughter so I’d still really like to minimize it…

davidthoreson.bsky.social•38 days ago

I was sailing through the Northwest Passage as the First American in history in 2007 documenting the greatest loss of ice in known human history.
Groundtruthing the science. I have a great climate story that I share and work w scientists.

emer.net•38 days ago

I was terrified for years we’d hit the RCP 8.5 scenario! Thankfully we’re not headed for that. Still not great, but nice to see we can make some impact.

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

Some folks seem to want to blackpill all over the replies, especially given what happens on Monday, so let me add: Every fraction of a degree is worth fighting for. There will never be a point at which the work stops mattering. Take care of your mental health so you don't actively obstruct the work.

morphometrich.bsky.social•38 days ago

Actually, this idea that we achieve fractions of degrees change makes it much more manageable and leas hopeless. Like actions individuals can take will matter! 💚💛💚💛

erinerex.bsky.social•37 days ago

I truly appreciate your work, Dr. Gill.

zoesamuel.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thank you for this. It's OK to have One of Those Moments and be overwhelmed! But it's not OK to go push that all over everyone who isn't in the middle of a Moment of their own so they become paralyzed too. Better to take a minute then get back to it.

elizmanderson.com•38 days ago

📌

alanpater.bsky.social•36 days ago

AFOLU mitigation has lots of potential.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-7/

foodforests4life.bsky.social•36 days ago

twitteraddict.bsky.social•29 days ago

A counter to the black pill... We already have a proven way to stop global warming, by adding particulates to the atmosphere that reflect sunlight. The risks are low, but we're currently too risk-averse to try it. If things get worse that calculus will change.

twitteraddict.bsky.social•29 days ago

It's not a perfect solution, and it won't reduce CO2 levels, but it could buy us a whole lot of time to figure out ways to lower atmospheric CO2 levels. Not as good as it would be to just stop the CO2 from being released in the first place, but it's something.

swchase.bsky.social•38 days ago

Let’s see what impact Trump has on numbers the next four years, he may throw everything out the window.

jacquelyngill.bsky.social•38 days ago

It's hard to predict, and the past doesn't guarantee the future will be similar, but even his first presidency couldn't resurrect coal.

zoesamuel.bsky.social•38 days ago

Plus, wobbles in US leadership on climate have historically inspired a lot of other entities to double down - EU, China, municipalities, states, communities etc. And the tech and market is in a different place. I personally remain very optimistic!

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