Hello excited to mention this on this new site that is very good faith discourse…. Should the Bears be going for 2 down 14? Does their offense have the rhythm to justify a 45ish% conversion rate versus the Vikings?? I am open to being educated. - ThreadSky

dannyheifetz.bsky.social • 96 days ago

Hello excited to mention this on this new site that is very good faith discourse….

Should the Bears be going for 2 down 14? Does their offense have the rhythm to justify a 45ish% conversion rate versus the Vikings?? I am open to being educated.

Comments

penguinoftroy.bsky.social•96 days ago

The analytics say you should go for two because your chances of converting 1-of-2 is relatively good.

But personally I hate creating a scenario where you *have* to go for two the next time.

gnasty24.bsky.social•95 days ago

It's more about the order. If you get the first one you can hypothetically end the game ok the next possession.

Avoid OT. If you fail you have the chance to convert again next drive. It's a worthwhile risk even if you're the Bears

atrasa.bsky.social•96 days ago

Assuming: 1. 50% 2-pt conversion success, 100 % kicking success and 50 % overtime win (numbers rounded for easier math) leads to:
Assuming you get both TDs and nothing else happens:
1. You get the first 2-pt: You win the game (50 %)

atrasa.bsky.social•96 days ago

2. You don't get the first 2-pt, but the second (25%, leads to overtime, 12.5 % win, 12.5 % loss)
3. You get neither (25 %)
This leads to overall win chance of 62.5 % versus 50% if you just play for overtime and kicking both times!

wisconsin-hawkeye.bsky.social•96 days ago

jrgadient.bsky.social•96 days ago

No because the Bears never convert

josh-ray-a.bsky.social•96 days ago

Yes because it makes sense to. But game feel wise, also yes. With the offense overall struggling, you’d want to make it easier on yourself when/if you get the ball back

davidwho74.bsky.social•96 days ago

No. No. No.

No.

carlatterbury.bsky.social•96 days ago

Question is: are they more likely to win if they only have to complete one more drive, or if they have to do it twice.

If the rhythm is so bad that it markedly damages the impact of a single 2PA, that probably doesn't bode well for their chances over the course of a prolonged drive.

brannon-tim.bsky.social•96 days ago

No. We’re not good enough

paulh87h.bsky.social•96 days ago

Math vs game feel. I fully understand the math but with how they are playing I feel like a traditional pat was the way to go. Unless they thought they were going to get blocked again.

zerosumofabitch.bsky.social•96 days ago

No, and anytime the Bears are faced with anything where probability doesn't favor them, they seem to fail. They have no will to impose.

benti.bsky.social•96 days ago

Technically, yes you go for it.

But I totally understand your point about it being the SPECIFIC situation, team, etc

pcopp49.bsky.social•96 days ago

I think the part that coaches like about going for 2 is taking the decision out of their hands for the potential late TD. Down 6 or 8, the decision is already made for you. But down 7 you have the scrutiny of whether or not you go for the win or the tie

manymuchmoosen.bsky.social•96 days ago

Bears should gone on Rogan

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply