Tentative awards ballots (I don't vote on any awards) Selke: Marcus Foligno Mark Stone Alexander Barkov Eetu Luostarinen Anthony Cirelli Hart: MacKinnon McDavid Matthews M Tkachuk Crosby Norris: Dahlin Q Hughes Fox Heiskanen Pelech Vezina: Hellebuyck Thompson Kuemper Stolarz Wolf - ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

hockeyviz.com • 3 days ago

Tentative awards ballots (I don't vote on any awards)

Selke:

Marcus Foligno
Mark Stone
Alexander Barkov
Eetu Luostarinen
Anthony Cirelli

Hart:

MacKinnon
McDavid
Matthews
M Tkachuk
Crosby

Norris:

Dahlin
Q Hughes
Fox
Heiskanen
Pelech

Vezina:

Hellebuyck
Thompson
Kuemper
Stolarz
Wolf

Comments

brandjeffrey.bsky.social•3 days ago

Why Matthews? I’m a Leaf fan and even I don’t think he deserves consideration this year. He’s been playing injured all year and he’s not even the most valuable player on the Leafs this season (goalies, Tanev, Marner been way more valuable).

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

He's still generating offence at an incredible clip, still finishing well above average (if less lethally than previously), still better than average defensively, causing the team to draw penalties, moving the puck up the ice. I didn't consider goalies at all.

goldsabre.bsky.social•3 days ago

My boy Dahlin! Yesssssssss

cmartinez78.bsky.social•3 days ago

How is Suzuki not even nominated for the Selke? He has only 6 PIMs this season.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

He's v. strong defensively, just not in the Selke weight class. He does cause Montreal to take fewer penalties, though; I included that impact in my ranking.

lhultin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Anze Kopitar should-be a Selke candidate every one of his 18 seasons now and isn’t because people can’t stay up late enough to watch West Coast games and ignore the Kings. 🙄 And yes, I know he actually won it twice but I challenge anyone to show me a more consistent player for this long.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Kopitar has been defensively excellent for many years but he's fallen to merely very good recently.

lhultin.bsky.social•3 days ago

I give you that his ice time has decreased a bit - understandably - but he is still second in points (and only by 2) and still plays in all situations - PP, PK, etc. The Kings have the best home record of any NHL team this season and they wouldn’t be there without him. 🤷🏻‍♀️

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Lots of those arguments are total value arguments, but the Selke is not a total value award, it's defence only.

lhultin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Is it, though? It’s best defensive center. That’s like saying the NHL doesn’t take offense into account when they vote on the Norris which is supposed to be for best D-man. They’ve notoriously given more weight to D-men who score a lot. Anyway, no issue with your picks but I’d still be adding Kopi.

lhultin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Also, I fully admit to some bias. 😏

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Norris is "best all-around at the position" and Selke is "best at the defensive aspects of the forward position", so it's not the same, no. Everything a defender does counts for the Norris, but offence is not relevant for the Selke.

snarkington.bsky.social•2 days ago

Whenever I watch Fox play, I’m left baffled at how soft he is in defense.

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

Aesthetic aspects of play (soft/hard, tough/fast, inside/outside, etc.) don't interest me. Results are what matter, how you get them is of no consequence.

cmdrwilkens.bsky.social•3 days ago

Late with this question but how does PL Dubois stack up for Selke consideration for you? Feels like Caps have been using him for the toughest assignments and he's winning them but that's just an impression.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I do take account of quality of competition, and pld is no slouch. Not in selke class defensively, though.

alpinepetey.bsky.social•3 days ago

Draisaitl not higher in the Hart due to McDavid getting more credit for his year? Feels like Drai has been much better defensively especially compared to McDavid this year to go along with the elite goal scoring.

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

I can only tell you how good I think Draisaitl is (very! but not close to Hart quality), I don't know how to explain how he might be considered differently.

alexislef.bsky.social•3 days ago

The people want a Calder list (and they want Hutson as the top pick)

claudevautour.bsky.social•3 days ago

Fox???!!??? Are you high?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

If it weren't for him covering up for Ryan Lindgren's sustained terribleness the Rangers wouldn't be sniffing the playoffs this season.

claudevautour.bsky.social•3 days ago

That doesn’t make him a Norris candidate! C’mon.

And not having Suzuki in there for the Selke is a crime

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

No, it's his all-around ability at the position that makes him a Norris candidate, not carrying Ryan Lindren specifically. The Norris guidelines do not mention Ryan Lindgren, in fact.

(Suzuki is v. good defensively but not quite Selke level)

maximiciak.bsky.social•3 days ago

Draisaitl

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

No I feel sure that he was mostly paired with Ryan Lindren actually

jackslung.bsky.social•3 days ago

No Makar?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

No. I suspect a lot of the credit that he's given in various corners should more properly be given to his forward teammates.

sportsbettorx.bsky.social•2 days ago

do you have any way to isolate this? this would apply to all dmen in some degree...obviously if he finishes the season 12 points up on the next guy, he's going to win

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

All of the different models that I use to measure player impact have some kind of accounting for teammates. I don't think it's helpful to use clumsy measures like points for that reason.

sportsbettorx.bsky.social•2 days ago

I don't disagree its a bad measure, but for voters I assume its the main measure they use...could your models produce an adjusted points list, based on league average offense?

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

No I don't think points is salvageable in this way - even if you could somehow make it fair to attach to individual players, it would still just be measuring some aspects of one half of the game. Bad metrics just have to be tossed entirely and replaced with new ones, no matter how popular.

contrail.bsky.social•3 days ago

No Werenski for Norris?

reschly.bsky.social•3 days ago

Crosby still has a very high sG. I would expect such a player, especially one on an otherwise middling team, to drag his teammates towards the 'good' corner on the replacement/wowy charts (as your other Hart selections do), but Crosby just pulls them towards Fun. Is the model overrating him?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I don't think I follow at all.

reschly.bsky.social•3 days ago

If 87 deserves the credit for the good things that happen when he's on the ice, then shouldn't we expect fewer good things to happen when he's off the ice. And shouldn't that show up in replacements or wowy.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

At 5v5 the Penguins with him generate 3.10 xG/60, without him only 2.30. At 5v4 8.87 xG/60 with him, 7.52 without. It definitely shows up, where relevant.

reschly.bsky.social•3 days ago

That extra 5v5 xG for seems to come at the cost of xG against, with a on ice net +.26xG/60, the same neighborhood as, say, Jack Eichel.

I expected the wowy charts to give me other people to blame for the defense, but it only Rust sticks out as worse away than with.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

The penguins do allow more against in Crosby's 5v5 minutes, at least. To isolate Crosby (or anyone) properly you have to go past plain wowy stuff and use regression. I don't think any other tools are powerful enough to account for all the complexities.

falzir.bsky.social•3 days ago

Picks for the Calder?

bergy4selke37.bsky.social•3 days ago

Micah, out of curiosity, would Pasternak be in the short list of MVP honorable mentions after your listed names?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Like twelvth or so?

jed1.bsky.social•3 days ago

I mean I disagree but I don’t really have good reasons why so you win

richk86.bsky.social•3 days ago

No Vasilevskiy?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Would be sixth or seventh if I made the ballot that long, depending on if you think Jake Allen has played enough.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Mark Messier Leadership Award:

Mark Messier

lukedecock.bsky.social•3 days ago

Thank you for reminding me to pull this over from the other site

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kylekaybee.bsky.social•3 days ago

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I feel much less sure about all of the other awards, but anyhow:

Calder:

Hutson
Stankoven
Celebrini
Samoskevich
Josh Doan

renedorfinger.bsky.social•3 days ago

No Wolf love for the Calder?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I didn't consider him; I don't mix goalies with skaters even in hypotheticals.

renedorfinger.bsky.social•3 days ago

Fair enough, I just thought it was funny that two people asked you on that on rapid fire.

feneban.bsky.social•3 days ago

No Wolf for Calder?

renedorfinger.bsky.social•3 days ago

Haha.

renedorfinger.bsky.social•3 days ago

8 seconds difference.

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I don't consider goalies eligible for the Calder.

laydownthelaw.bsky.social•3 days ago

Poor Heineman, that car crash was enough to go from top to absent from the ballot 😞.

collectabk7.bsky.social•3 days ago

Where would Lacombe rank?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

If he were a rookie? Close to the top

collectabk7.bsky.social•3 days ago

My bad. I confuse him with Colangelo.

sageoflonlon.bsky.social•3 days ago

Stankoven over Celebrini is interesting, would love to hear thoughts on this

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Stankoven has a stronger impact on penalty differential; that might be the kind of thing you might not have considered? I think the two of them are v. similar in (per-minute) total impact, though.

hazylikeswayzee.bsky.social•3 days ago

But my Austrian son

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

He's good!

daveyoung19.bsky.social•3 days ago

No Dustin Woolf? No Helly for Hart. Why does Micah hates goalies?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I don't ever consider goalies for any of the non vezina awards. I think one discretionary award is enough for goalies.

daveyoung19.bsky.social•3 days ago

Interesting! Can’t say I agree but it’s a fun philosophy. Is that why you don’t have Hughes as a hart candidate either?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

No I think all the skater positions should be eligible for the hart; I just don't think Hughes is as good as those guys.

ntrider.bsky.social•3 days ago

Beast mode

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

He's outrageous

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bbjay-716.bsky.social•3 days ago

One day he’ll get the recognition he deserves (on another team probably)

ntrider.bsky.social•3 days ago

mega star in hiding. some day…

jetsfanjeff.bsky.social•3 days ago

Hellebuyck isn’t top 5 for Hart?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

I don't consider goaltenders eligble for the Hart.

taylorsyoung.bsky.social•2 days ago

The definition is most valuable to his team. Hellebuyck is the most valuable player on a team that could win the President’s Trophy. So why not consider goalies?

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

I understand that the award definition as listed permits goalies as well as skaters. I don't compare goalies to skaters, though, as a matter of principle. Other people can if they like, I don't.

nifusto17.bsky.social•3 days ago

Where did Nico fall too in Selke and Hart?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

For Hart somewhere around ~60, I guess. For Selke nowhere special at all. His defensive impacts have never been close to Selke territory.

nifusto17.bsky.social•3 days ago

Harsh, but fair

stretch3281.bsky.social•3 days ago

Adam Pelech?

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

Yes.

yukonhcornelius.bsky.social•2 days ago

Would love to see your breakdown of Pelech vs Slavin (who has had to carry the ghost of Brent Burns all year).

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

Slavin is very strong, only slightly weaker than Pelech all-up. It's true that Burns is weak defensively at 5v5 and accounting for that shows Slavin's strengths there, but Pelech is even stronger. Pelech causes the Isles to draw more penalties, is better in leaving the puck further up the ice.

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yukonhcornelius.bsky.social•2 days ago

As these are the two teams I watch the most I am not sure I am convinced, but full respect and appreciation for a prompt and thorough response.

yukonhcornelius.bsky.social•2 days ago

If I am reading your charts correctly:

The difference comes down to drawing (I will set aside the RBA vs refs element there) and 5v5D and that is where my eyes just won't let me concede a gap of that size.

But mainly thanks for sharing all this stuff.

nsissons.bsky.social•2 days ago

A lot make sense, but I don’t understand the logic for the Norris list. Like where is Makar? Werenski?

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

Those are good players but they just aren't as good as the ones I mentioned. I don't know what makes you think otherwise, so I don't know what to explain specifically.

mattio.bsky.social•3 days ago

leaving Hischier out of Selke conversation must be a tough choice to make

hockeyviz.com•3 days ago

?? Hischier is a very strong player but if you look at defence only he's nowhere close to Selke quality.

philipivofspain.bsky.social•3 days ago

I feel like it's fashionable right now to find reasons not to go with MacKinnon for Hart. What's your take for #1 in Hart, if I may ask?

hockeyviz.com•2 days ago

I don't know anything about fashion, I'm afraid. My case for Hart is that if you measure the total impact of what MacKinnon does on the ice, it's the best in the league. He's especially strong at creating offence for Colorado and also at converting that offence into goals, both shooting and passing.

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