We have a good candidate for time of breakage: 250126T0045U bsky.app/profile/erik... - ThreadSky

auonsson.bsky.social • 123 days ago

We have a good candidate for time of breakage: 250126T0045U

https://bsky.app/profile/erikelmgren.bsky.social/post/3lgnl77u6tk2u

Reposted from Erik Elmgren

Jag ska ändra mig, ser att det är LVRTC som äger kabeln. Där inleds förändringarna 00:30-00:45 vilket stämmer med mycket tidigt lettisk söndagsmorgon.

www.ihr.live/en/network/A...

Comments

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

At 00:45 there are three ships in the immediate vicinity of this nights broken cable, all along it its stretch.

A Norwegian reefer and a Finnish ferry w/o speed irregularities.

And a Maltese-flagged rustbucket, allegedly built -22 but there seem to be photos from -99. With speed irregularities

asherlangton.bsky.social•123 days ago

The 1999 timestamp is almost certainly a metadata error. The photographer appears to take a lot of pictures from a drone and they all have the exact same 1999 timestamp. For example:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/pl/photos/by/copyright:simon%20provencher?order=date_uploaded

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Thanks! But there are more (eg from 2015) and if that thing is 2 years old they must have really failed upkeep..

shubliburn.bsky.social•123 days ago

But wait - "at least one" 🤔 https://x.com/SwedishPM/status/1883521723716214949

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Yes, the track is long and the irregularities start earlier. Just as last 'accidents'

shubliburn.bsky.social•123 days ago

https://x.com/LRZinas/status/1883522290908041337

renelosna.bsky.social•123 days ago

Just out of curiosity, I checked it, and apparently it was brand new a couple of years ago ... 🧐

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

I hope I was clear about non-conclusiveness. But, is that not odd in itself? A 2.5 year old boat looking like it is on its final voyage to the breakup beach?

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Could it be that is was rebuilt? Some pics show what looks like another bow. Could be the angle but looks more straight.

pekka.bsky.social•123 days ago

They have had ships with same names for some time.

Verila also appears in this 2018 of the list. IMO number is not the same.

renelosna.bsky.social•123 days ago

Some of their ships looks photo-shopped or taken from a game, have a look 😀

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

With anchors already out of the hawsepipe. :-)

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

VEZHEN, 2 year old ship in a photo from 2015. Look how shiny she is!

With this I will leave conclusions and coming investigation for others and enjoy my sunday. =)

https://bsky.app/profile/auonsson.bsky.social/post/3lgnkabkqdk2y

alochmar.bsky.social•122 days ago

Indeed, looks brand spanking new! 😆

rasmusolsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Med tanke på närheten till Kaliningrad och ryssarnas undervattensförmåga baserad där, så kanske en dold operation inte är osannolik?

anders.abel.nu•122 days ago

Uploaded in 2024, how reliable is the photo timestamp? News media right now echoes the 2022 claim as a proof the ship isn't part of the shadow fleet because it's too modern.

stephenmarks.bsky.social•123 days ago

VEZHEN is owned by Bulgarian company Navibulgar. https://www.navbul.com/en/fleet/details.php?id=90

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Said speed irregularities enhanced by statistics. And historic wind for the trip.

tavamamma69.bsky.social•122 days ago

How plausible is the owners take that this anchor drop happen because of (quote) "..unfavorable hydrometeorological conditions in the area".

tavamamma69.bsky.social•122 days ago

The rest of ships passed without problem, but this one doesn't?

foosint.bsky.social•123 days ago

A swedish patrol vessel is closely following it and Vezhen appears to slow down now.

otaipale.bsky.social•123 days ago

KBV 033 håller på stoppa Vezhen som bäst…

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

japp! "rekommendation" tror jag =)

otaipale.bsky.social•123 days ago

Mycket möjligt 😀 alltid bra att rekommendera med en kanon.

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Swedish PM hinting at more to come. Which likely fits the much longer stretch of irregular speeds.

H/T @shubliburn.bsky.social

tavamamma69.bsky.social•123 days ago

Hope to hear from the swedish side, as the press conference by the latvians was a nothingburger - basicly the same that was reported by media, with the addition of the checked ships name. Seems like all the journos were enjoying their Sunday, as only one question was asked in About 8 minutes.

aflat5flat9.bsky.social•123 days ago

She now is in international waters.

Will that vessel hit Swedish territorial waters when navigating The Sound / Øresund or will it pass solely through Danish territory?

Will the Swedish of Danish Navy or Coast Guard be able to act?

janthrysoee.bsky.social•123 days ago

looks like a "wait committee" is ready west of Bornholm - two danish patrol boats p520 and p521 left Rønne this afternoon. A swedish - kb035 and two german ships also in the area.
Interesting to see if YI Peng 3 gave the authorities a lesson....

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Another vote for 00:45U as the relevant time:

https://bsky.app/profile/eldomador.bsky.social/post/3lgnmzujumc25

auonsson.bsky.social•122 days ago

Swedish coast guard operating on behalf of security services, on order from prosecutor has arrested and boarded VEZHEN on suspicion of severe (?) sabotage. Swedish navy has also assisted.

https://www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/fartyg-taget-i-beslag-efter-kabelbrottet-i-ostersjon

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Swedish Coastguard seem to have "advised" cable sabotage suspect VEZHEN to steer towards Sweden.

auonsson.bsky.social•123 days ago

Look at that data lining up to the hills of the deep!

https://bsky.app/profile/pa.nton.cx/post/3lgnuoixo3k2s

tomi-mcc.bsky.social•123 days ago

Press conference scheduled for the incident according to Latvian PM

https://bsky.app/profile/evikasilina.bsky.social/post/3lgniyoi73c2z

pa.nton.cx•123 days ago

@auonsson.bsky.social

Loaded up the data points in QGIS

Vessel speed (color scale 6.5-8.5 kt)
Red dashed: telecom, blue: gas/petrolium, green: power.

Speed seems to correlate well with changes in bathymetry

miskaknapek.bsky.social•122 days ago

excellent analysis work @pa.nton.cx

tomi-mcc.bsky.social•117 days ago

Love this visualization, bravo!

May I ask what you're using for the infrastructure layer?

pa.nton.cx•117 days ago

Sorry, I missed the initial attributions in my eagerness to share:

Bed topo: EMODnet
Infra: OSM/OpenInfraMap (of which I have contributed to heavily over the past couple of days)

pa.nton.cx•123 days ago

I think the intended target could be C-Lion1 once more (Hanko branch)

pa.nton.cx•123 days ago

Approximate timestamps for the 5 cables passed.

CLion1 (2016): Jan 25th, 03:21
Baltic Sea Submarine Cable (2000): (routing unknown, no detailed timestamps)
Sweden-Estonia (EE-S 1) (1995): Jan 25th, 11:00-11:35
Sweden-Latvia: (2005): Jan 26th, 00:49
BCS East-West Interlink: (1997): Jan 26th, 04:40

pa.nton.cx•122 days ago

https://www.navbul.com/en/news/details.php?id=90

"She is the second Navibulgar ship named after that peak of Stara Planina Mountain in Bulgaria.
55 years ago, the first m/v Vezhen (13 470 DWT) was built in the Japanese shipyard of Enoshima.

She was serving for Navibulgar fleet for 41 years."

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