If anyone sees anything substantial showing it actually was broken Dec 25th or some other day, hit us up! @eldomador.bsky.social Would you check anomalies to Russian ASes for Dec 25th and recently? - ThreadSky

auonsson.bsky.social • 23 days ago

If anyone sees anything substantial showing it actually was broken Dec 25th or some other day, hit us up!

@eldomador.bsky.social Would you check anomalies to Russian ASes for Dec 25th and recently?

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eldomador.bsky.social•21 days ago

I can see there was a disruption in Kaliningrad at 10:05 UTC on December 26, 2024 lasting for about 10 minutes.

I can't tell the cause, only that the region was briefly offline.

auonsson.bsky.social•21 days ago

Interesting! And from then til now, smooth sailing?

Anyhow, not a complete failure. (though damage that might need repair is still expected, even if it works. )

eldomador.bsky.social•21 days ago

I'm still searching through dates from late Dec to now.

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

One old example of damage, surveillance or maintenance work, there are several more:

https://x.com/auonsson/status/1736821467739042202

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

To be a 100% clear: Dec 25 2024 tanker EAGLE S passed the exact spot of comms cable Baltika where we are now seeing a Russian work boat. EAGLE S did so with either chain or chain and anchor pulled behind her.

Todays "new break" is most likely a 1.5 month old break.

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

The reasons to suspect it is not even broken: it is a strategic cable. Without it and if Baltic states/Poland decides so Kaliningrad would be without a wired connection. Isolated save radio.

So, I have a bit of a hard time believing they wait 1.5m to fix it. But we might have missed the repair?

spotkanienamesie.bsky.social•23 days ago

What we know about Poland and Baltic states - do they give some wired connections to Królewiec ?

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

I never went to the bottom of that when I tried to find out so I am not certain.

With that disclaimer I believe Kaliningrad has: Baltika (2021) subsea + one broken subsea and land lines of various age and locations. Iirc it was hard to find clear data on it.

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

But I am almost a 100% there are landlines through some of the Baltic states and or Poland, else they would have been offline pre 2021 when Baltika was built.

pekka.bsky.social•23 days ago

Maybe they knew there are new anchor dragging "accidents" coming, so better wait until those have happened so that possible multiple damage locations can be fixed with one trip?

havukka.bsky.social•23 days ago

Russ just don't fukn care. The just don't
🏴‍☠️🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰🇺🇦🫡🧑‍🔧⚡💡

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

With this added information, FI Ministry was informed Dec 26, the day after Eagle S incident, I’d say it is almost certain that Eagle S caused the damages of the Russian cable too.

And it is with 100% certainty not ”new”.

Further, acc to article there are repair permits and CG says repair.

auonsson.bsky.social•23 days ago

Just realized we have so far no proof the cable was damaged. Besides a very late repair ops and Russian authorities telling Finnish authorities.

https://bsky.app/profile/auonsson.bsky.social/post/3lhotglclok2h

piratealia.bsky.social•23 days ago

There's some speculation in the FI press that RUS waited this long because of the sanctions. They don't have western tech available, so they've had to bring in RUS made equipment for the repairs. Pre Feb 2022 they would have collaborated with other Baltic sea nations, but that's out of the q now.

historysami.bsky.social•23 days ago

Don't come and tell me they had to do it the VERY weekend Balt states leaves the RuZZian grid.

No fvckin way!

piratealia.bsky.social•23 days ago

I'm (hopefully) paraphrasing this the way Klemm meant, but the article is a bit vague on the details.

The source is in Finnish only, sorry.
(Hopefully not behind a paywall, but can't vouch for it.)

https://www.hs.fi/suomi/art-2000011020869.html

historysami.bsky.social•23 days ago

Also Swedish papers are full of this or the Swedish lingual paper HBL in Finland.

pa.nton.cx•23 days ago

On the day that the Baltic States - Russia power grid was separated

tomi-mcc.bsky.social•23 days ago

A nice confirmation datapoint for your work!

https://www.openstreetmap.org/way/967781385#map=5/56.93/19.51

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