I ended up on a pretty off-beat strategy this season. I haven't WC'd, I used my Free Hit in GW9 and I've taken a lot of big bets against the crowd.
Some analysis of how the fuck I got here here - I don't know where I'm right/wrong tbh
Buckle up bitches it's a 🧵
Some analysis of how the fuck I got here here - I don't know where I'm right/wrong tbh
Buckle up bitches it's a 🧵
Comments
General consensus was that the new rules would reduce value of WC, since you have more ability to do WC-like moves without the chip. For many, this led to the early WC (4/6/8) looking like it had sufficient juice to be a good spot, and set up GW1 accordingly. I set up to play long
More than the consensus, I thought that the new rules increased the value of an FT, especially early in the season. "A transfer rolled now is a hit avoided 25 GWs later" was never the reality before but now it is. Longer form needed - but FTs are much more like a stock than a flow now
FPL has felt a lot more like SkyFF this season, and I think this is why.
In general, Salah lines gave up some EV first 3 weeks and Haaland lines used more FTs to get that EV. Solver was giving me 50/50 so personal preference tipped the balance
1) Gabriel -> Robertson in GW4 (fix & free 3rd Arsenal spot for attacker),
2) My 3rd FT on Raya -> Ederson in GW6 (Raya injury scare)
3) Saka -> Son GW8 (Saka injury)
4) Keeping Dunk/JP
3 was an xMins mistake, but happy with 1, 2 & 4
Honestly, I don't know how much of an impact this one has had, but I've shifted the decay up a bit this year (to 0.88+noise) because of our ability to plan further into the future with FTs. Effect size is likely small but it aligns with the higher WC/FT values above
I have this lower than previous seasons because of the lack of 3rd round of doubles, same thing that led to a lot of TCs in 2/9. We have CC final & FA Cup Semis causing postponements, but no FA Qtrs.
FTs for CC, DE/WC for FA Semis, just need low correlation CC Finalist -> Fa Cup Semis
Great thread