What will decide the next election is Quebec. Does their hate of Trump out weigh some of the nationalist tendency? Is the Bloc just a place holder until an important vote comes up? Will Carney's weakness in French hurt him or will Quebecers sympathize with his efforts?
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The other thing I’m thinking is the GTA suburbs, can Carney sway the wealthy homeowners in Etobicoke and Oakville that he will be better on the economy (my guess is yes)