I suspect this overstates L/NP seats & understates ALP, as I don't see how this MRP model accounts for the sophomore effect. It seems unlikely to me that L/NP would pick up more seats than a straight pendulum would predict, when many would be held by sophomores. Eh, @peterbrent.bsky.social ? - ThreadSky

davidpeetz.bsky.social • 7 days ago

I suspect this overstates L/NP seats & understates ALP, as I don't see how this MRP model accounts for the sophomore effect.

It seems unlikely to me that L/NP would pick up more seats than a straight pendulum would predict, when many would be held by sophomores.

Eh, @peterbrent.bsky.social ?

Reposted from casey briggs

Some extra thoughts from me on todays YouGov MRP model open.substack.com/pub/caseybri...

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peterbrent.bsky.social•7 days ago

Yes it can’t catch personal votes is my understanding. And you’re right, all else equal, winner if many seats last time should overperform against pendulum. But also sophomore for those QLD Greens.

nellyjane.bsky.social•7 days ago

You gov is from where ? Written by who ? Owned by who ..
Newspoll is a poll based on murdochs biased rags & quoted like it’s valid ! So I need to know the validity of “you gov “ .

davidpeetz.bsky.social•7 days ago

While I don't trust most things that come out of News Corp, for obvious reasons, Newspoll tends to be one of the more accurate pollsters. All polls have house effects ('bias' due to sampling problems) but Newspoll's not consistently pro-Tory.

nellyjane.bsky.social•7 days ago

While ever msm lies to us & opposition leader is given more air time than PM ..any poll taken is opinions based on what Murdoch press fed the masses I disregard polls for this reason I do try to educate those not on sm

davidpeetz.bsky.social•7 days ago

YouGov is a MNC, around since 2000 but newer in Oz, Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham.bsky.social) would be able to tell you more about its house effect and background.

nellyjane.bsky.social•6 days ago

What’s MNC ??

davidpeetz.bsky.social•6 days ago

Multinational corporation

kevinbonham.bsky.social•7 days ago

Newspoll isn't based on Murdoch papers. It is commissioned and published by Murdoch papers but is not based on their readership - it's an independent pollster using general market research panels. It simply doesn't skew to the right, either compared to other polls or election results.

kevinbonham.bsky.social•7 days ago

Yes that is a general issue with MRPs. Personal vote effects get greatly diluted. But the overall impact of personal vote effects for Labor in my model is only about 0.7 of a seat for the sort of 2PP YouGov have.

davidpeetz.bsky.social•7 days ago

But that is probably the difference, on those numbers, between an ALP plurality and an L/NP plurality?

kevinbonham.bsky.social•7 days ago

Not in this one, they have 73 seats to 66. So with personal votes added maybe it is 72 to 67.

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