Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects 🧵Thread: - ThreadSky

tatarigami.bsky.social • 4 days ago

Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine

In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects

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chrisleitschuh.bsky.social•4 days ago

Did you also estimate a ratio for the last months? I sense, ever since Ukraine abandoned the heads on defence of cities, the ratio from afar seems to be more favorable but I have no insights.

offogredux.bsky.social•3 days ago

I concur. Using a permanent loss calculation for the entire war doesn't represent the current loss ratio capability. Additionally, I would like to look under the hood for the data used to calculate the total permanent loss variables.

onlytruthcansolve.bsky.social•3 days ago

wanna be leader of "some world"

tatarigami.bsky.social•4 days ago

2/ Thanks to InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.

tatarigami.bsky.social•4 days ago

3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories

tatarigami.bsky.social•4 days ago

4/ Through simple calculations, as demonstrated in the image, we determined the total number of desertion and AWOL cases in the Southern Military District, arriving at a figure of 22,577 cases.

tatarigami.bsky.social•4 days ago

5/ After applying the same method to each district, we arrived at a total of 50,554 documented AWOL cases across all military districts. While this number is not exhaustive, desertion rates among naval/air force specialists are low enough to be considered insignificant overall

tatarigami.bsky.social•4 days ago

6/ According to the US ARI report What We Know About AWOL and Desertion (Ramsberger & Bell, 2002), the desertion rate in the US Army during the Vietnam war period 1968-1971 averaged ~ 5%. This rate, comparable to current desertion levels in Russia, does not indicate a collapse

tatarigami.bsky.social•4 days ago

7/ Our team estimates that Ukrainian military AWOL rates are higher than Russia's, with the caveat that many Ukrainian soldiers went AWOL to join preferred ones rather than waiting for official transfers. Additionally, some deserters returned through the amnesty program

miungureanu.bsky.social•4 days ago

Would the AWOL situation on Ukrainian side be improved by a robust rotation system, a law On demobilization, and improved recruitment and training system?

zeseadog1966.bsky.social•1 day ago

gosh, hopefully you will find "workarounds" to that new traitor act from Washington

https://bsky.app/profile/politico.eu/post/3ljrz4jov4c25

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