New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5) tinyurl.com/569pr9ty - ThreadSky

astokespop.bsky.social • 20 days ago

New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5)

https://tinyurl.com/569pr9ty

Comments

singcat.bsky.social•20 days ago

📌🧪

astokespop.bsky.social•20 days ago

Since 1980, the US has accumulated nearly 15 million “missing Americans”—lives lost because our death rates remain far higher than in other wealthy nations. This crisis began long before COVID and shows no sign of slowing. (2/5)

verdonski.bsky.social•19 days ago

The article says 1.5 million, not 15 million.

astokespop.bsky.social•20 days ago

In 2023, 46% of all US deaths under age 65 were avoidable. That’s nearly 1 in 2 deaths in working-age adults—driven by overdoses, gun violence, car crashes, and chronic disease, rooted in policy failures and structural neglect. (3/5)

astokespop.bsky.social•20 days ago

The US mortality crisis is decades in the making—shaped by policies that fostered car-centric cities, fragmented health care, weak safety nets, and poor nutrition. These systemic failures cost lives every day—and reversing course will require bold, structural change. (4/5)

astokespop.bsky.social•20 days ago

This work was a team effort—grateful to lead author Jacob Bor and coauthors Rafeya Raquib, Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, Steffie Woolhandler & David Himmelstein. (5/5)

Coverage via @busph.bsky.social

https://www.bu.edu/sph/news/articles/2025/us-excess-deaths-continued-to-rise-even-after-the-covid-19-pandemic

#MissingAmericans #ExcessDeaths #HealthPolicy @jama.com

gregorytravis.com•20 days ago

Excess Deaths vs. COVID infections 2020-present

I calculate 25,104 excess deaths from disease and 33,727 a-cause excess deaths for 2023

705K excess deaths in 2023 is simply not credible at any level

astokespop.bsky.social•20 days ago

Here we have calculated the number of excess deaths attributable to the US mortality disadvantage. This is based on estimates of the number of US deaths that would have been expected each year had the US population experienced the age-specific mortality rates of other wealthy nations.

gregorytravis.com•20 days ago

Yes, I understand that now. If I understand it, you are using European mortality baselines and then applying those baselines to US mortality data to produce the excess death estimates

Given that the US has terribly high mortality rates compared to Europe this will produce inflated excess estimates

gregorytravis.com•20 days ago

for the US

I don't have as problem with that but it should be a little more clear from the get-go since most other estimates of US excess mortality, including mine, are much lower (though still incredibly high)

wrigleyfield.bsky.social•20 days ago

It's not an inflated estimate of excess deaths; it's a different meaning of that term. Any discussion of excess mortality is attached to an idea of "compared with what scenario?"

"Compared w what would've happened w/o a disaster" is one common usage, but "as a way to compare populations" is another

wrigleyfield.bsky.social•20 days ago

Here's a prominent, recent-ish example of the latter meaning of "excess deaths" that wasn't written by anyone on this author team

gregorytravis.com•19 days ago

This is absolutely true

But if we are going to communicate this information to the public it is extremely important that when we talk about excess deaths we say what they are excess TO -- exactly what you are saying

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