A story in four parts: 1) US GDP growth has outpaced all other G7 nations 2) it's even outpaced pre-COVID projections 3) inflation-adjusted wages are up, and most for low-wage folks 4) wages at the bottom rose so much, income inequality is down, undoing 1/3 of its growth since Reagan - ThreadSky

bbkogan.bsky.social • 181 days ago

A story in four parts:
1) US GDP growth has outpaced all other G7 nations
2) it's even outpaced pre-COVID projections
3) inflation-adjusted wages are up, and most for low-wage folks
4) wages at the bottom rose so much, income inequality is down, undoing 1/3 of its growth since Reagan

1 / 4

Comments

dgirl.bsky.social•181 days ago

I am begging liberals to stop listening to economists. GDP is only useful if you believe in trickle-down economics

fluxandflow.bsky.social•181 days ago

For Part 4:

The date range for the changes of the bottom decile begins in 2019.

How many states/localities have changed their minimum wage rules since then?

"Undoing 1/3 of the growth in wage inequality since Regan" feels like significant (but still faint) praise.

fluxandflow.bsky.social•181 days ago

While praise should be given where it's due.

I am also seeing a lot of people who are homeless, or renters who are just barely avoiding homelessness.

It makes me cautious of embracing these numbers.

paulrosenberg.bsky.social•181 days ago

📌

krishunnisett.bsky.social•180 days ago

Great news. Hoping our new government can replicate this

kbkorb.bsky.social•181 days ago

#4 sounds like a problem. Better get the Thiels, Mercers, Musk et al. on it.

Where's Scott Walker when you need him?

sandykazmir.bsky.social•180 days ago

In image 1 it looks like the U.S. did a pretty great job of managing the crisis given that other G7 nations experienced much deeper digs to GDP. Looks like that set the stage for a rapid recovery. It was unpopular with some, but looks like stimulus & stipend set the stage quite well for next in line

daniskitchen.bsky.social•127 days ago

📌

tenntux.bsky.social•181 days ago

Thank you

demdifference.bsky.social•181 days ago

One further economic data point worth emphasizing given Trump's false rantings today about the job market:

Employment for native-born, prime-working-age Americans is HIGHER TODAY under Biden-Harris than it ever was under Trump.

chart by @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

wetasspword.bsky.social•181 days ago

I guess not providing people basic health care needs really pays off for the oligarchs

maniagnosis.bsky.social•181 days ago

📌

xelkelvos.bsky.social•181 days ago

That's an odd way to do what's essentially supposed to be a quintile graph as it seems to omit the 10th-20th and 80th-90th percentile groups so as to have bottom and top 10th bars

axelhoyle.bsky.social•181 days ago

It's even stranger than that because it's not the top and bottom 10th, it's actually the 10th and 90th percentile

saneblade.bsky.social•181 days ago

I’ve been travelling to the US a few times a year for about 20 years, and this year and last it has felt fantastically prosperous and thriving compared to Europe and the UK, in a way it didn’t used to feel (to me). Ie your stats confirm my feelings. Yet everyone says ‘the economy is terrible’.

farqfox.bsky.social•181 days ago

📌

namedrock.bsky.social•181 days ago

Please add Alt text to graphics.

jung-gt.bsky.social•180 days ago

📌

gaylefranceslarkin.bsky.social•181 days ago

Is this why they tried to force Biden out?

simonehochgreb.bsky.social•181 days ago

Recipe: invest in people.

anti-you.bsky.social•181 days ago

“Is the economy too good for Harris to win?”

princetonyimby.bsky.social•181 days ago

does the measure of inflation used to calculate changes in 'real wages' include or exclude housing costs?

bbkogan.bsky.social•181 days ago

Includes! Some costs have grown faster than average, and some costs have grown slower than average (or have shrunk). But it includes them.

princetonyimby.bsky.social•181 days ago

Are you sure? My understanding is that calculations of real wages are based on the CPI, which excludes house prices.

bbkogan.bsky.social•181 days ago

CPI includes housing costs!

princetonyimby.bsky.social•181 days ago

It does include housing costs, but in a roundabout way. Cash rent is considered, on a lagging timeline, but for owner-occupied housing, I believe they use OER instead. That (deliberately) does not capture the very high inflation in sales prices of homes in the past 5 years.

katiecannon.bsky.social•181 days ago

Since Reagan:

Our government will pay for our military, bank & corporate subsidies when it issues our currency.

Our economy will rely on ever increasing household debt to fuel household consumption

Welcome to houses being the fuel that we rely upon 🥹

bbkogan.bsky.social•181 days ago

OER is weird for sure. gonna end up understating some people's costs but massively overstating others'. but basically for the large majority of owners, OER is overstating costs, while new buyers would see it as understating the costs they take on (1/2)

darylsng.com•181 days ago

The OER component of CPI has risen very quickly as well in the last 5 years though (see graph below), and is strongly correlated with house price increases. While OER tends to lag actual house price growth by about 1.5 years, by now the really high-growth parts of the last 5 years have been included

erik45824291.bsky.social•181 days ago

It wouldn’t make sense to use the current price for a home, because 90% of households don’t buy a home in any given year. Their cost is a stable mortgage payment. Obviously using what people pay for in place mortgage payments also wouldn’t fairly measure the costs either. OER splits the difference.

martinfriedrich.bsky.social•181 days ago

This is impressive! But what are your thoughts on the U.S. Gross Federal Debt to GDP ratio reaching 122% in 2023? Many over here in Europe believe that the high growth might have come at the cost of long-term financial stability. I am still on the fence about this concern.

torrleonard.bsky.social•181 days ago

But people don’t “feel it” because groceries are expensive…

cajsa.bsky.social•179 days ago

I wonder how much is changes in how we consume groceries? More deliveries, meal kits, subscription meal services, etc.

torrleonard.bsky.social•181 days ago

And food-away-from-home is expensive.

And auto insurance.

And vehicles.

And utilities.

And housing.

And healthcare.

And higher education.

bigworker.bsky.social•181 days ago

It's pretty great, though depressing in its way, that the US accidentally covid super-stimulused its way out of secular stagnation. Kind of a miniature version of how WWII ended the Great Depression. Will we ever figure out how to enact proper demand management policy on purpose?

rockyruff.bsky.social•181 days ago

whetstone.bsky.social•181 days ago

“a nun costume” lol

rockyruff.bsky.social•181 days ago

Is that what the Alt text says? I put in Princess Leia. Weird.

whetstone.bsky.social•181 days ago

i can see your alt but above that it’s got an image-recognition version too

i guess i can see how it got confused

whetstone.bsky.social•181 days ago

rockyruff.bsky.social•181 days ago

OMG. Classic BlueSky behavior.

socialjoe.bsky.social•181 days ago

📌

jpshipley.bsky.social•181 days ago

but biden was bad tho. I can’t say why, but he was definitely bad.

mazinga.bsky.social•181 days ago

It's five parts: As soon as wages go up for the bottom 90%, the media starts screaming about inflation.

1967honoredqueen.bsky.social•181 days ago

But people still griping about economy

santaerik.bsky.social•181 days ago

Now, if folks in news rooms would cover the incredible facts. Also, the flip in scores & grad rates btwn boys/girls men/women in schools and colleges.

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