The whole point of following the yields on 10 year T Notes is they were the 'safest investment' and 'as good as cash', which is why yields went *down* when people got spooked.
If yields are going up, that means money isn't going from stocks to bonds, but from *dollars* to *non-dollar* investments!
Then what's your explanation for why yields went *down* during other market crashes and economic uncertainty (see 2008, 2020) indicating 10Y TNotes were in demand for safety, but investors decided to pull *out* of TNotes this time around?
Why is cash and shorter term good this time but not before?
In a normal recession you expect deflationary pressures. A low return on a 10 yr is a good bet. Right now we have no idea, it’s too chaotic. Better to keep your options flexible and not tie up your money with a yield that could prove disasterously low.
But more broadly you can’t compare the processes of 2008 or even 2020 which unfolded over many days in hindsight to a one day flash spike today. We don’t know enough yet. There WAS a brief massive sell off in 2020.
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If yields are going up, that means money isn't going from stocks to bonds, but from *dollars* to *non-dollar* investments!
Why is cash and shorter term good this time but not before?