China’s EV boom is slashing oil demand—fuel use fell 1.3% in 2024, with gasoline demand set to drop 35-50% by 2035 (but I say 2030). 40M+ EVs dominate the roads, leaving the West scrambling. Germany suffers an acute case of Norway envy while Japan’s still scratching their nuts! ⚡🌍 #EVs #Disruption - ThreadSky

evcurvefuturist.com • 67 days ago

China’s EV boom is slashing oil demand—fuel use fell 1.3% in 2024, with gasoline demand set to drop 35-50% by 2035 (but I say 2030). 40M+ EVs dominate the roads, leaving the West scrambling. Germany suffers an acute case of Norway envy while Japan’s still scratching their nuts! ⚡🌍 #EVs #Disruption

Comments

ianrobo.bsky.social•67 days ago

this is all a case study in how luddites never work nor win. I am in tech job because I love how things change and progress and when things are cheaper. more efficent, more productive then the economics just force that S curve across it all and unstoppable, only querstion is speed

evcurvefuturist.com•67 days ago

And the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

ianrobo.bsky.social•67 days ago

Does no CEO and company look at Fuji and think well we can not stick with what we thought. The Nio firefly is coming to europe swappable batteries (not one for me but can see the use case for that !!) and has battery tech on the s curve and no one knows where it will level out !!

ianrobo.bsky.social•67 days ago

MG look like having the first mass produced semi solid battery next year and when my car is up in 28 who knows where the industry will be ? Ps to declare had MG4 since march first EV

evcurvefuturist.com•67 days ago

They’re dazed and confused—victims of stagnation and clinging to outdated models. The pace of change is relentless, and those stuck in the past will be left behind!

ianrobo.bsky.social•67 days ago

and if you are in the US you get blocked off from this and isolated. the china tariffs in europe won't matter in the long term but signs europe makers are getting themselves in shape for say renault, Dacia, Curpra, Skoda, BMW, Porsche (it seems) Citreon even within groups the decisions are weird !

blackbloke.bsky.social•67 days ago

1.3% still feels like margin of error fluctuation. I’ll put my significance threshold at 5%.

evcurvefuturist.com•66 days ago

Fair point. However, this isn't the only factor. Trends are now irrefutable.

blackbloke.bsky.social•66 days ago

I agree with that. Based on the somewhat exponential trends I’m expecting to see 5% in 2-3 years

evcurvefuturist.com•66 days ago

I think 1-2 years, but that's splitting hairs. PHEVs could give oil a small extension, pushing it to 2-3.

garethroddy.bsky.social•67 days ago

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the price of oil. Presumably, OPEC will need to keep cutting production.

evcurvefuturist.com•66 days ago

OPEC cutting production may stabilize oil prices short-term, but aggressive cuts risk accelerating EV and renewable adoption. Falling prices often signal weaker demand or oversupply. The real challenge for OPEC lies in the global shift away from fossil fuels—they’re on a very tricky trajectory.

polyphren.bsky.social•67 days ago

Electric Viking mentioned you, and is good to see real, accurate posts on social media. Less oil use is on route for China, but, problem remains, will we keep well below 500ppm CO2? As to any and all progress, really never see much on India, but then.........

evcurvefuturist.com•67 days ago

Thanks for the comment! Less oil use in China is huge & India’s progress often flies under the radar. With EVs, AI & renewables booming globally, I believe we’ll stay under 500ppm—& thanks to tech disruption, CO2 could fall below 400ppm within a decade or two at most. The future is bright, cheer up!

polyphren.bsky.social•67 days ago

Glad someone is happy, hopeful, still, willing to bet 100 rupees CO2 will reach 450 in 10 years, 500ppm after if we cannot get everyone on the planet into an electric Tuk Tuk, or a better pair of shoes! There, that is me being a bit less negative, is the best I can do in such times!

evcurvefuturist.com•67 days ago

I’ll take that 100-rupee bet—tech disruption is moving faster than most expect. EVs, renewables & even EV Tuk Tuks are scaling up globally. Stay hopeful; we’ve got a fighting chance to reverse the trend & keep CO2 in check. The future isn’t written yet! Prosperity over scarcity will win the day.

polyphren.bsky.social•67 days ago

You know we will have to split a Kingfisher, no matter who wins! Just listened to some numbers of Tuk Tuks, scooters in India, realize that they are in early stages. Also, is a prototype of geotherm electric project in old coal plant in India as well, keep the faith!

donquijoterides.bsky.social•67 days ago

For anyone that thinks 1.3% doesn't matter, the price of oil in the market is set at the margin. So it does matter

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