Suppose there's notice prior to GW24 deadline that Spurs/Fulham gets contingently moved to GW25. Then it's 25-35% chance of DGW based on betting odds of EFL Semifinal. Is that enough of a probability to bump the value of AM24 so it's clearly superior to AM33/36? Assuming you still have TC as well.
Yes, the speculation is/was that the league could announce it as a contingent scheduling decision before GW24 deadline -- meaning it would only be confirmed based on the outcome of the EFL Semi. This has happened before. Most recently, the DGW24 scheduling was contingent on a certain result in UCL.
Well, that right there is why it's a lowish probability. Betting odds currently have Liverpool as 70-80% likely to advance. But even so, that 20-30% added chance for DGW25 makes AM super tempting.
It would be close, but keep in mind that DGW25 implies that Tottenham advances to CC final, so no LIV blank in 29, no LIV double in 33. You lose a big chunk of EV relative to TC24 on Salah.
Suppose with the current projections ARS/TOT for Salah or sou/AVL for Haaland in 36 would be ok in isolation, but then there are so many other implications to leaving the TC until then, plus in Haaland's case just having him in your team, that it feels far from optimal.
Would have to get that notice for me to consider it. But I would consider it, because wouldn't it be just the most Spursy of Spursy things to go to Anfield and get a result, just as it's expected the least.. (and that wouldn't show up in models. 😂)
It is, but initial thoughts are that if you only get one double, you're better off leaving it until the later ones. Something to think about though, for sure.
Sharp-eyed managers will have noticed that there is some discrepancy between my EV for GW24 and Review's EV (mine is a bit lower on average). In this case, I would trust Review's numbers (based on betting odds, I think). But model is OK for predicting likelihood of table bonus in future GWs
Optimal AM strategy very team dependent:
TC still available, already 3 Liv in squad: TC24 on Salah, AM in 31 or 35/36
TC still available, only 2 Liv in squad (or 3 LIV and lots of FTs) : maybe AM24 if provisional announcement of DGW25
TC played already: AM24 defo an option
Comments
If you pick up another double, great.
But to do it with clear conscience, you need to back Ol’ Moyes-y.
TC still available, already 3 Liv in squad: TC24 on Salah, AM in 31 or 35/36
TC still available, only 2 Liv in squad (or 3 LIV and lots of FTs) : maybe AM24 if provisional announcement of DGW25
TC played already: AM24 defo an option