There's something weird going on with Trump's tariff announcements and the markets. Taken seriously, a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico should have triggered at least a rout. But instead, they held steady, either because they think he's bluffing or because no one wants to break from Trump first - ThreadSky

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literallybismarck.bsky.social • 15 days ago

There's something weird going on with Trump's tariff announcements and the markets. Taken seriously, a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico should have triggered at least a rout. But instead, they held steady, either because they think he's bluffing or because no one wants to break from Trump first

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alexalejandre.bsky.social•9 days ago

It's not just about up and down. The market can e.g. price in future inflation by going up: an inflationary environment means higher prices, higher margins on investments made now etc. The market can also stagnate while foreign markets grow 3x in the same time (compare EWG with SPY).

literallybismarck.bsky.social•15 days ago

If we assume that they think he's bluffing... At what point do they realize he's serious? When do they actually react? We've already got a 10% tariff on China. What more will it take?

literallybismarck.bsky.social•15 days ago

It seems like Wall Street has to realize eventually that random, erratic shifts in policy are bad for business, but when? Or worse, what if they don't? Maybe they drive the bubble higher and higher, out of fear of the administration or just fear of being caught moving when no one follows?

literallybismarck.bsky.social•15 days ago

I don't know, and I don't think anyone does, but I do think a market crash is one of the only things that can break Trump and Musk's momentum, so... Here's hoping for a recession in the next few months, I guess

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