I hope for a southern offensive, first signs taking Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast. Holding that area an a dash over to secure the Enerhodar/Zaporizhia nuclear power station. This would require a multi pronged attack, likely special special forces taking the plant in a carefully timed mission.
As a laic I see it as test of response. Ruzznia's holidays are approaching, so 2nd baby's term and UKR need to show some action. Stakes are high and is about time to retake initiative. Or?
It is hard to tell if Ukraine has enough forces to forge deeper into Zaporizhia to Melitopol. Wiping the Kerch bridge would be also key to retaking a portion of the south.
A huge offensive would be to retake most of Zaporizhia and secure Kherson. Most of this is rural area, it wold require a Kherson south operation, retaking Enerhodar and driving down to Yalta.
There was already a demand against such attacks when they started, so Ukraine was careful to only hit refineries and storage rather than crude export facilities (i.e. the terminals in Novorossiysk and nearby) which would trigger an oil price shock.
Relieving Kherson from some attacks would be massive. City is under constant attack. But even a lesser goal of taking back ZNPP and restarting its NPP would be huge for the Ukrainian people although I’m not sure if an adequate water supply would be available without Khakova dam?
The southern front is heavily defended by Vatniks. The AFU slammed straight into those defenses a year ago and stalled almost immediately, so I doubt they'd try that again.
There's a very strong argument to be made that the failed 2023 offensive was so costly to Ukraine that it may very well result in them losing the south entirely in post-war negotiations.
#RussiaIsATerroristState committing a full-scale genocide in plain sight.
It is our duty towards Humanity to help 🇺🇦 win the war.
Whatever victory takes, right now 🔥
#SlavaUkraïni
🇩🇰🇱🇹🇵🇱🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇪🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧🇳🇴✊🇺🇦
I’m not sure who’s in charge of the army down there. Besides this advance the other trapped in pockets should have never been left that long. He needs firing
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Better to focus efforts on supply depots, rail bridges, and Russian oil refineries. And electric grid infrastructure. Wreck the Russian economy.
There was already a demand against such attacks when they started, so Ukraine was careful to only hit refineries and storage rather than crude export facilities (i.e. the terminals in Novorossiysk and nearby) which would trigger an oil price shock.
But maybe the US pressure rose.
I'd love to be proven wrong of course.
#RussiaIsATerroristState committing a full-scale genocide in plain sight.
It is our duty towards Humanity to help 🇺🇦 win the war.
Whatever victory takes, right now 🔥
#SlavaUkraïni
🇩🇰🇱🇹🇵🇱🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇪🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧🇳🇴✊🇺🇦