bsky.app/profile/csil... Run sane third party candidates who will caucus with Dems or at least give Dems de facto ability to block Trump from doing illegal shit. - ThreadSky

csilverandgold.bsky.social • 9 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/csilverandgold.bsky.social/post/3lpae5ol7jk2z

Run sane third party candidates who will caucus with Dems or at least give Dems de facto ability to block Trump from doing illegal shit.

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people like to shit on yglesias et al especially here, but i'd really like to know what the anti-centrist plan is for winning a senate race in OH, because this math is brutal and real. even if you flip Collins (Maine) and Tillis (NC) you still need one more just to get to a tie in the senate.

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wowitschris.bsky.social•9 days ago

how is that the anti-centrist plan? or is this just a parallel idea

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

It in fact replaces the centrist position (triangulate on everything) with something more like the incoherent mix of policy preferences of the actual median voter. Like Dan Osborne took some hard “left” positions on labor issues and some soft “right” positions on cultural issues.

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

In another state, they might run a genuine fiscal conservative who is not a reliable vote on budget bills but who believes in democracy and government functioning and will vote for filibuster reform and confirming DOJ officials who will go after MAGA criminality hard, etc.

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

Also it separates from the *actual* Yglesias agenda by abandoning the attempt to drag American culture to the right by dragging the Democratic Party to the right. Dems stay a cosmopolitan party, and operatesin coalition with non-cosmopolitans outside the party, particularly in the Senate.

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

*operate in

wowitschris.bsky.social•9 days ago

maybe osborn could generalize as a strategy, but my baseline concern is that first-past-the-post systems heavily, heavily incentivize a two party system and relying on a truce of sorts between effectively two minority parties is a very unstable situation

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

I actually wouldn’t do that in Ohio, but I think we should be set up to do that in essentially any state that is ~R+7 or more.

trvee2.bsky.social•9 days ago

wait so you’re all for running centrists just not those with a D besides their name? so basically this is all about factional power right?

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

1) no, but even if it were that would be great, 2) centrism advocates moving uniformly towards the center; actually “moderate” voters are a mixture of incoherent positions some of which are quite extreme left or right…

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

3) the degree of right leaning positions an individual candidate needs to take to establish “moderate” or “independent” pedigree << the degree required to achieve the same for a democratic candidate or worse the democratic brand

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

4) Dems are likely to be electorally punished nationally for moving as far to the right as would be required to meet the median voter of the median senate seat (several points to the right of the nation) where they are. It ain’t going great for Labour, is it?

martingiannini.bsky.social•9 days ago

Punished nationally by who? The left? The smallest self-identifying ideological faction?

The calculus that there are more votes to be gained in the center than on the left may be consternating but it hasn't been disproven.

trvee2.bsky.social•9 days ago

that also disproportionally lives on the coast and aren’t very helpful winning Senate seats and House seats within the interior.

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

5) a meaningful part of the goal is to put electoral pressure on Republicans. Rs can’t be caught dead moving to the center for a Dem. But for a threatening independent? Maybe!

martingiannini.bsky.social•9 days ago

Given the number of contests that'd fit the contours you're describing, you'd be advocating for the Democratic Party to withdraw from up to hundreds of races and be replaced by "independents" who all happen to caucus with Dems. This may not be as brilliant a covert operation as you might think.

trvee2.bsky.social•9 days ago

electorally punished by who? which groups?

reddtrain.bsky.social•9 days ago

Or do pretty much anything (short of contributing to the warchest) to ensure Paxton successfully primaries Cornyn.

If I had to guess, I think that change would make the seat a Toss-Up/Lean D instead of Solid R.

csilverandgold.bsky.social•9 days ago

Probably still Lean R if you recalculate your baseline partisanship based on how bad we did in TX in 2024 but yes, TX becomes imo a viable path due to the combo of Paxton, school choice, and the “border security” agenda going nakedly Make America White Again (no, blancos that doesn’t mean you)

seandomnick.bsky.social•9 days ago

I'd be happy to run candidates who are on average moderate in those states if they were polling way better than anyone else, but you don't need to be centrist and you don't need to be crazy to be popular. Having winning the seats with a D caucuser be the guiding light, not running a certain ideology

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