The new Hansen paper argues climate sensitivity is actually 4.5°C - at the very high end of current estimates.
If he's right, warming will accelerate very quickly from here.
Whether you agree or not it's much safer to act like he's right than to hope he's wrong.
If he's right, warming will accelerate very quickly from here.
Whether you agree or not it's much safer to act like he's right than to hope he's wrong.
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And my blog post about climate models where that chart comes from: https://www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/what-if-our-climate-models-are-flawed
I think it needs an explanation for non-climate scientists.....!
It feels like we should know the answer to that right? It's pretty fundamental to the problem. But we don't. Climate scientists call that "climate sensitivity" and Hansen thinks the world is more sensitive to emissions that the IPCC does.
Again, I wrote about it here: https://www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/what-if-our-climate-models-are-flawed
My point is that we still don't know what this very important value is and Hansen makes a credible case that it's at the very, very high end which should worry us all.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity/