busted toss plays in short yardage are the most infuriating thing in football. but i've yet to see math evidence that they're actually bad in any consistent way. recall talking about this with @billbarnwell.com one time in an NFL context. they look really stupid but they're a countermove - ThreadSky

alexkirshner.com • 51 days ago

busted toss plays in short yardage are the most infuriating thing in football. but i've yet to see math evidence that they're actually bad in any consistent way. recall talking about this with @billbarnwell.com one time in an NFL context. they look really stupid but they're a countermove

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roljamas.bsky.social•51 days ago

Caveat: I’m one of about 3 Bill Callahan Nebraska truthers in existence.

Callahan would run sweeps into the ground at Nebraska, but they always led to something - in 2006 against Texas, they were used to set up a halfback pass for a go-ahead TD with about 5 minutes to play. Love you, Marlon Lucky

jeffbrack.bsky.social•51 days ago

I don't mind that type of play, but I like it better if there is at least some misdirection to try to get the defense moving the wrong way. They just brought a bunch of bodies to the left and it just seemed that OSU read what they were doing.

kylecunoads.bsky.social•51 days ago

NFLData, but here's score rates and TFL rates by concept from the 1 yardline since 2018. Outside Runs have both the highest TFL rates and some of the lowest score rates.

kclarke2112.bsky.social•51 days ago

Where’s the option- the Bears ran that on 4and1 and lost 8 yards against Indy 😞

kylecunoads.bsky.social•51 days ago

I didn't include speed options because there have been so few, but they lost TWELVE yards on that play and that play specifically is the most yards lost in the sample set that is both a run concept and not a fumble.

Success rate league-wide for Speed Option from the 1 is 62.5%

alexkirshner.com•51 days ago

damn. very interesting. though i wonder how much the presence of these plays improves rates going straight ahead

kylecunoads.bsky.social•51 days ago

Over that time span Atlanta has the highest % of outside runs from the 1 (22.4%) and their overall conversion rate from the 1 is 37.1%, easily the lowest in the league. Second lowest is Cleveland at 48.4%.

kylecunoads.bsky.social•51 days ago

Of course this could mean the data is being skewed by Falcons overall ineptitude.

dangerinpgh.bsky.social•51 days ago

*cries in 3 consecutive failed inside zone/dive runs and a PA pass to not-tyler warren*

piglet.bsky.social•51 days ago

when they work, they’re genius. just me?

mogey.bsky.social•51 days ago

Seems like they’re a high risk high reward play. It wouldn’t matter on 4th down, but on 2nd you’re risking making your life harder on 3rd and 4th.

billygomila.bsky.social•51 days ago

The redzone has always been Sark's kryptonite

lameguy76.bsky.social•51 days ago

I'm just an idiot but always wondered why the wide play isn't used more.
Up the middle is a heap of bodies you hope your guy can squeeze through.
Most of the time a wide play, the runner just needs to slither by one defender for a yard.

justincaseccu.bsky.social•51 days ago

I’m a Steelers fan so I’ve yet to see any evidence that the toss play ever works (but I get your point)

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