So. Occam's razor is a valid principle. But it's very often misused, and this is a classic example. The common statement of Occam's razor is that the simplest explanation is usually the right one. In actuality, it's that the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is the right one. - ThreadSky

enirenberg.bsky.social • 3 days ago

So. Occam's razor is a valid principle. But it's very often misused, and this is a classic example. The common statement of Occam's razor is that the simplest explanation is usually the right one. In actuality, it's that the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is the right one.

Reposted from Michael Hobbes

I am going to lose my mind. Every previous coronavirus spilled over from animals. A novel virus has never leaked from a lab.

Peak Ted Talk Brain to suggest that something *which has never happened* is the occam's razor explanation.
www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/b...

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kathmarval.bsky.social•3 days ago

📌

momo663.bsky.social•3 days ago

And in Medieval times when he wrote: it was the use of Universals, which he argued were not “real.” Led to the breakdown of the medieval system; opened the door for observing the individual thing- set us up for scientific methods.

jessecouk.bsky.social•3 days ago

Creationism via Occam’s razor is wild stuff.

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

This is because any assumption you make has a probability between 0 and 1 of being true. As you chain assumptions, assuming they are independent, you end up multiplying numbers between 0 and 1 to get to the conclusion, which successively produces smaller and smaller numbers, which means that...

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

the more assumptions you have to make, the less likely the thing is to be true. To many people, it might seem like lab leak would require the fewest assumptions. I mean, there's a lab there that does virology, including on coronaviruses, and there's an outbreak in the same city. Simple, right?

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

Well, here's the problem with that. Firstly, the earliest cases of COVID-19 are centered on the Huanan Seafood Market (HSM), and our genomic epidemiology indicates that there were two introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the market about a week apart. Also, the HSM is not down the block from WIV.

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

You would have to drive about 20 kilometers to get between them, and this is overwhelmingly going to be done by public transportation. So with this information together, for a lab leak to happen, a person would have to have the virus, travel 20 kilometers to seed the outbreak once...

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

and then return a week later to seed a second outbreak. Now look how many assumptions we're making.
- SARS-CoV-2 was present at WIV before the pandemic (something there is no evidence for)
- SARS-CoV-2 was able to travel to HSM and nucleate an outbreak, essentially without infecting others

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

- SARS-CoV-2 did the same thing a week later

If the earliest cases were traceable to some coffee shop across the street from WIV, then yeah, maybe lab leak would have some legs as far as Occam's razor. But Occam's razor looks not-so-great for this hypothesis.

borednoodle.bsky.social•3 days ago

I like how it's their FIRST point too. You mean it only gets fucking worse from there!?

enirenberg.bsky.social•3 days ago

Well. It doesn’t get better lmao

jeffmcmahon.bsky.social•3 days ago

In other words it’s the “simplest” explanation, not the “stupidest” although they may be the same, depending.

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