🚨New paper alert!🚨 @anthlittle.bsky.social and I are excited to share “Presidential Election Concessions.” We present a new global dataset on concessions in presidential elections in all countries worldwide from 1980 to 2024 /1
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👉 Concessions after electoral defeat are an important democratic norm, but we don’t have a clear sense of the empirical prevalence of concessions. How often do losing candidates concede? What types of losers are most likely to concede? /2
‼️To preview: About half the losers in our dataset concede. Rates of concessions have INCREASED in recent years. Perhaps surprisingly, INCUMBENTS who lose are more likely to concede compared to non-incumbents who lose! /3
📈 We present a new global dataset on concessions in presidential elections, 1980-2024. The data covers 712 elections in 107 countries, and we code whether the top-placing loser conceded /4
We also distinguish between Strong Concessions (statement clearly acknowledges loss) versus Weak Concessions (ambiguous statement that accepts outcome but questions validity of the result) /5
🚨Important🚨 We code concession outcomes for ALL elections, regardless of whether the election was free or fair. We’ll return to how to INTERPRET concessions wrt election quality below... /6
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