Looking at the bigger picture and the actors: US, Ukraine, Russia, the EU, the outcome of last several weeks is clear for just one of them: the US. It lost. Badly. In the short term, Trump failed to achieve any of the things he wanted. Freezing the conflict. No. Forcing a ceasefire on UA. Also no. - ThreadSky

efinkel.bsky.social • 19 days ago

Looking at the bigger picture and the actors: US, Ukraine, Russia, the EU, the outcome of last several weeks is clear for just one of them: the US. It lost. Badly. In the short term, Trump failed to achieve any of the things he wanted. Freezing the conflict. No. Forcing a ceasefire on UA. Also no.

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drjaimeashworth.bsky.social•19 days ago

I don’t think he was serious about either. If he was, he would not have ended the US security guarantee.

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

The minerals, I do believe he wanted

drjaimeashworth.bsky.social•19 days ago

He’ll get them from Putin.

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

Sharing is not taught in Russian kindergardens, from what i remember

drjaimeashworth.bsky.social•19 days ago

I don’t think it’s taught in Trump family circles either. And I think the Donald is behaving like someone who trusts Putin.

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

Which is idiotic because trust isn't supposed to be taught in Trump family either. In fact, theirs seem to be a rather narrow curriculum

ecosmiths.bsky.social•19 days ago

World-class shitty optics by Trump/Vance, who came across as a cartoonishly garish fake wrestling team. IMHO, not planned, but universally panned. A monumental Nazi-class Fuq-Up!

nitpicker.bsky.social•19 days ago

Europe is not a country. There will be those countries that understand the consequences of Russian domination and those who choose ignorance. I am hoping we get a coalition of the willing, akin to a modified JEF in the not particularly far future. Sure. The EU is nice, but not a defence alliance.

cogenteur.bsky.social•19 days ago

Might Xi emerge as guarantor - bracketing Putin, building EU cred, tightening their hold on "raw earth" elements?

exotraveller.bsky.social•19 days ago

One of the long term problems for the US is that no ally can expect alliances to last more than one presidential term. Trump even broke the "NAFTA" trade deals he negotiated in his first term. It will be a lonely world when every relationship becomes purely transactional.

danod.bsky.social•19 days ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue

unroll.skywriter.blue•19 days ago

The thread as a shareable webpage: https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:g4dz6h7kbkhpthm64dao36z6/post/3ljd4chyegs2m.

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efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

Getting the minerals deals, even in watered down form. Nope as well. Forcing Zelensky out or at least sidelining him. No, no, no. A Nobel Peace prize is not in the offing either. Complete disengagement is the likely next option but it gets Trump none of the things he sought, just cutting losses

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

Beyond Trump, the longer term consequences for the US are less certain but none of them positive. A more dangerous world that Trump is creating makes the US less safe while alieniting allies and destroying state capacity and expertise makes navigating or even surving this dangerous world much harder

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

Ukraine: obviously, the most desirable outcome would be continued US support and a good ceasefire deal with strong security guarantees and/or the prospect of NATO membership. Not happening. The worst outcome, though, would be a bad deal while being thrown under the bus by the US and given nothing

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

This UA seems to have avoided. In between, there is the option of continued war with less/no US support but hope for better outcome down the road. The viability of this option is up to the EU. If that works, then there is a chance for a better future deal. If not, they are back to the very deal

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

that Trump tried to impose to begin with, so why not take the chance. Besides, now Europeans are more energized, the UA society more united and Zelensky is more popular than at any time since winter-spring 2022. So they are not winning but likely not losing either, at least for now.

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

Russia/Putin: The best case scenario would have been Trump pushing his ceasefire deal down Zelensky's throat. But the second best, which is continued war against a weakened Ukraine is vastly better than a ceasefire deal that Ukraine sought to get. Besides, Russia is not taking the EU seriously

daledooper.bsky.social•19 days ago

The problem is ukr society doesn't want to continue participating in the war. Men are literally caught in the streets by draft officers and police for MONTHS already. Millions are just sitting at home waiting for the end.
This excitement after Oval office talks will disappear in days.

maxganzii.bsky.social•19 days ago

I may be completely wrong, but I do not think he actually wanted to achieve any of the goals he stated.

efinkel.bsky.social•19 days ago

I think he did want tge minerals. And maybe the Nobel Prize

ixs.bsky.social•18 days ago

100% he wants that Nobel Prize.
The fact that Obama got that prize is so grating to him, he needs to have that prize too.

The fact that Obama got the prize not for what he did but for effectively "not being Bush" does not factor in his thinking.

The minerals he's not personally obsessing about.

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