At this moment in time, the war $'s are the only thing keeping Putin's economy going. On May 18 2025 - there is nothing to replace it. If the war stopped tomorrow, one would think the entire Russian economy would crash.
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Would it not take years to economically recover and return to reasonable inflationary levels/ non war GDP, etc. How much time is needed to transition from war mode to basic productivity? How long will sanctions/tariffs remain? Oil prices?
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I think you're both correct.