Finally had some time to dig into the subsea cable cuts in the Baltic Sea that have gotten a lot of attention lately. Due to the rich fabric of connectivity in the region, the loss of the two cables caused minimal disruption. However, here are some subtle BGP impacts I was able to identify. 🧵 - ThreadSky

eldomador.bsky.social • 134 days ago

Finally had some time to dig into the subsea cable cuts in the Baltic Sea that have gotten a lot of attention lately.

Due to the rich fabric of connectivity in the region, the loss of the two cables caused minimal disruption.

However, here are some subtle BGP impacts I was able to identify. 🧵

Comments

digitaladam.bsky.social•134 days ago

Damn, such techno-OSINT (TOSINT?) is definitely a welcome dimension to UA/Baltic OSINT scene. Thank you for the valuable thread.

lammiswatching.bsky.social•129 days ago

📌

sleet.bsky.social•129 days ago

I've wondered if it was a tapping mission that ended up cutting a couple of cables.

eldomador.bsky.social•134 days ago

I estimate that the BCS East-West Interlink was cut at 07:53 UTC on Nov-17 and the impacts are visible in both Lithuania and Latvia.

https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/bcs-east-west-interlink

eldomador.bsky.social•134 days ago

Hundreds of prefixes transit by Telia Lithuania (AS8764) exhibited a slight decrease in transit from Arelion (AS1299) at the time of the cable cut.

78.61.16.0/20 and 78.57.128.0/20 are shown below.

eldomador.bsky.social•134 days ago

In another case, prefixes originated by UAB "Balticum TV" (AS39007) of Lithuania saw a slight decline of transit from Telia Lithuania (AS8764).

86.100.200.0/21 and 86.100.208.0/20 are shown below.

eldomador.bsky.social•134 days ago

In neighboring Latvia, the Latvia State Radio and Television Centre (AS8194) saw a slight drop in transit from Lattelecom (AS12578).

2a02:503:1::/48 and 2a0d:1740::/32 are shown below.

eldomador.bsky.social•134 days ago

I estimate that the C-Lion1 was cut at 02:05 UTC on Nov-18 (18 hours after the BCS cut) and the impacts are visible mainly in Finland.

https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/c-lion1

eldomador.bsky.social•134 days ago

In Finland, Netplaza (20904) lost transit from Hurricane Electric (AS6939) and this trickled down to its customers.

Images for 2a00:1a28:100::/48 is shown below:
* AS20904 declines as a transit provider for AS48618
* AS20904 loses transit from AS6939

auonsson.bsky.social•130 days ago

Aw yiss. I have been searching someone able to do this since Newnew Polarbear did her autumn-harvest of Baltic Sea cables last year.

No one I asked back then could, several said “cant be done”.

You apparently can.

amaragraps.bsky.social•129 days ago

💯💯

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