Thinking About Football Models 📰 What I think about when I think about football. I tried writing a longer article for those curious about modelling football matches. In a way, it is what I wish I could have read five years ago. Happy New Year everyone 💜 www.elevenify.com/p/thinking-a... - ThreadSky

elevenify.com • 59 days ago

Thinking About Football Models 📰

What I think about when I think about football.

I tried writing a longer article for those curious about modelling football matches. In a way, it is what I wish I could have read five years ago.

Happy New Year everyone 💜

https://www.elevenify.com/p/thinking-about-modelling-football

Comments

afhstewart.bsky.social•59 days ago

Really enjoyed this.

elevenify.com•59 days ago

Thanks Alex - means a lot and appreciate the comment.

I would say that, at least subconsciously, your posts here two weeks ago about 'wishing people just blogged still' were probably a needle mover to just get this done and published!

afhstewart.bsky.social•59 days ago

Ah that’s kind to say. And this sort of thing is something I think about a lot so great to read such a cogent piece from you!

zejoao-jjm.bsky.social•59 days ago

Great reading. Thanks and a Happy New Year!

fplstudent.bsky.social•58 days ago

Thank you for posting this - it’s super insightful for an aspiring modeller🙌 Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve noticed this season seems more unpredictable than past seasons, making success measurement tricky. Better than markets is great, but is it as good as it gets? Interested in your thoughts

fploverthinker.bsky.social•58 days ago

This is a great article and of course raises more questions than it answers. it's a good starting point to get those of us with analytically curious minds thinking deeper.
I look at luck, which is largely spoken about as variance, as the inputs that we either can't quantify or can but can't model...

fploverthinker.bsky.social•58 days ago

In FPL, there are so many generalisations we use for strategy e.g. we often use fixture difficulty rating as a definitive measure of the opposition's ability to score or concede goals. But teams charge their setup depending on opposition, so this sort of aggregation is not always the best approach.

fploverthinker.bsky.social•58 days ago

The consensus is to make transfers for fixture swing, but I have lost more points by benching good players in 'red' fixtures, than any other mistake. The converse of buying players for top vs. bottom clashes also rarely pays off.

omhays.bsky.social•59 days ago

Coming from someone who has no personal aspirations towards modelling, but is just interested in the whys and hows of football (and thereby modelling), a great read. Thanks!

Happy New Year!

omhays.bsky.social•59 days ago

This also got me thinking about Antoine Semenyo.

I made a post (on another platform) about him not being a Bournemouth player next summer early in the season.

omhays.bsky.social•59 days ago

But actually, I'm not sure - because of his decision quality. He's the guy who takes those 5 shots, when another decision would have likely led to a better chance.

Needs to improve on this, but of course, there's room. He's 24. Can he take the next step?

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply