Climate Change is accelerating beyond the computer models. We’re in trouble. Science Alert www.sciencealert.com/scientists-d... - ThreadSky

jamesfloveiv.bsky.social • 60 days ago

Climate Change is accelerating beyond the computer models.

We’re in trouble.

Science Alert

https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-discover-alarming-evidence-global-warning-is-accelerating

Comments

kath55.bsky.social•59 days ago

Frightening

starlightshelling.bsky.social•59 days ago

Oh it is so over especially since 🍊is about to take us back 50 years

wutthewut.bsky.social•59 days ago

We’re in hard core climate crisis now.

princefan-1.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yep, we are. I can tell in Michigan. The winters here are completely different from when I was growing up. Don’t get me wrong I like driving in less snow.
But you are right, we are in deep.

lisa234567.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yall can shove it about the climate change issue

almahawes.bsky.social•60 days ago

Of course it is. These things are not linear. Big Oil is killing us and they don’t give a shit.

actnsang192.bsky.social•58 days ago

📌

katr01.bsky.social•59 days ago

Let’s do something to combat it!!!! Oops we have a Buffoon coming in so we are doomed

oapnigel.bsky.social•60 days ago

I’ve been saying this for a while.

moe27.bsky.social•59 days ago

😩

pasto76.bsky.social•59 days ago

When you tell a magat who thinks al gore invented this how teachers talked about _climate change_ in elementary school in the early 80s

peanutbuttercookie.bsky.social•60 days ago

Don’t expect any help from the incoming US federal government.

robertsssmart.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yeah we are

hipgecko.bsky.social•59 days ago

America is all about denialism and greed.

aprildginter.bsky.social•57 days ago

I was debating on asking this. Is all of the underground digging/drilling worldwide over the years taken into account with these models? Curious how much of the unseen is being taken into account.

czeckmate2024.bsky.social•59 days ago

No comfort in realizing that if those helicopters hadn’t succumbed to sand in their gears so he could have rescued the hostages, he would have won re-election, Carter’s energy policies would have carried forward, and we’d be off fossil fuels. Reagan, who won, dismantled them
But worth mentioning now

loloatlarge.bsky.social•59 days ago

Reagan sabotaged the entire world. Evil bastards.

billprice.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yup, he ripped out the solar panels in the White House

steve-stahlman.bsky.social•59 days ago

There was more to the failed rescue than sand in the gears, and the US had double digit inflation under Carter. He was a great man, but wasn't willing to lie to us to win. Like Reagan...

tracideecee.bsky.social•59 days ago

And Musk and the people on the Right are yelling for us to have more babies

serena-spencer-esq.bsky.social•59 days ago

es59531.bsky.social•59 days ago

Chicago has had few days of snow since November.

londonreed.bsky.social•60 days ago

Starting 1/20/25 we will be in hell so soon we will also feel the fires of hades

katemthomp.bsky.social•59 days ago

🤦🏻‍♀️🥺

earlalbright.bsky.social•59 days ago

Don’t worry, republicans don’t believe in science. Surely their thoughts and prayers will do the trick. And just our luck, they won the election. (Yikes! We are screwed!)

mosslabrynth.bsky.social•59 days ago

They need something other than a heart. I don't heart this, but thank you for posting it.

lynnsane5150.bsky.social•59 days ago

So sad

dee-dtx.bsky.social•59 days ago

Surprise level 0 🤬

docvalerie.bsky.social•60 days ago

Aside from ignoring most of ecology & its critical roles -ones not separate from what CCM models -it points up that we have NOT been taking this as seriously as we need to.

Our main response should have been a Manhattan Project approach to the issue, to ID and gauge all impacts and nonlinearities.

docvalerie.bsky.social•60 days ago

Yes - it shows some holes in our scientific approach. To a large extent this is a failure of the physics mindset to accurately model complexity. It wants the natural world to be as clean as physics equations, going so far as to still ignore key system components in the form of eco-biochemical cycles

cactusjackpine.bsky.social•60 days ago

No. There's a saying in science, "All models are wrong but some are useful." Climatologists are fully aware that they don't yet know all the forcings. The natural world is all physics all the time.

docvalerie.bsky.social•59 days ago

And sorry - but if you are denying this shows holes in our scientific approach, then i would argue we do not allow such holes in our understanding to be sustained for things like flight, nukes, etc.

Yet Earth is the system we depend on, and we have left gaping holes for decades.
It's bad science.

cactusjackpine.bsky.social•59 days ago

The earth system is far more complicated than flight or nukes. Science is a tool and climatologists are using it to understand the observations. A hallmark of a solid theory is the ability to make predictions. The prevailing theory is making solid predictions but there's still much to learn.

docvalerie.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yes-but nonlinearities are hard ;).
Prediction is a big deal in itself -both its uncertainties, and how to convey the timescales and the error.
Sometimes a good overview a la Donella Meadows' can be overall predictive, when a more complex model is missing components needed at that scale of detail.

cactusjackpine.bsky.social•59 days ago

The prevailing theory predicts that global mean temperature will continue to increase.

tinmanbs.bsky.social•59 days ago

Hypothesis: A species that evolved to focus on short-term threats is doomed to ignore a long-term threat until it is too late.
A test of this hypothesis is ongoing but results won't be known for some time yet.
#TippingPointOfNoReturn

docvalerie.bsky.social•59 days ago

Ha, we could argue those results have been coming in for awhile ... so far we are failing.

It's almost looking like a form of mental illness.

cactusjackpine.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yep. Our species never evolved with climate change that is occurring at the observed pace.

docvalerie.bsky.social•59 days ago

They are fully aware.. yet there are still no plans (if so, please inform me) to include real ecosystems and their critical biogeochemical cycling aspects, into these models.

It's "outside" of physics, but how can solutions -that may rest on the ecological components - be found without them?

cactusjackpine.bsky.social•59 days ago

Climatologists know that there are unknown interactions and feedbacks as revealed by the modeling.

mkn68.bsky.social•59 days ago

I learned this in undergrad biology the year of the first Earth Day in 1970. With the new administration coming in, we are gonna lose most of what we had, which was very little. How are we supposed to remain calm, mentally stable, and happy when all we worry about is our children and grandchildren.

hopefulforsummer.bsky.social•59 days ago

Exactly. My heart breaks for my children and grandchildren. What have we done....😢

tinmanbs.bsky.social•59 days ago

Climate Science's Dirty Little Secret:
They DON'T know how bad it will get or how fast because they CAN'T know. It could be ½ their estimate or 5x just as easily, because ACCELERATING PHENOMENA ARE INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE.

slightlydespairing.bsky.social•59 days ago

No they make predictions based on viable information. Nothing dirty or little.

ruviewer.bsky.social•59 days ago

Hard to predict feedback loops

aliadair22.bsky.social•59 days ago

And the Trump administration will be anti-regulation, pro-pollution which will accelerate climate change even more. 🌎🔥💦💨

billt51.bsky.social•59 days ago

These greedy morons don't care for the people who inhabit the earth today or their kids and their kids in the future. Greedy & amoral!

kton11.bsky.social•59 days ago

Of course it is. Time to save these bears before they are gone.

avangionq.bsky.social•59 days ago

We're on 17 consecutive months of 1.5°C global warming, and the first full year above the tipping point, which comes 3 years ahead of schedule. The ramifications are ALREADY felt, especially in the oceans. We had only a handful of years remaining to get climate change under control. That's gone now.

markoraos.bsky.social•59 days ago

Idiotic propaganda at this point.

jamesfloveiv.bsky.social•59 days ago

It’s 63° in Ohio. It’s never this warm at the end of December.

wendybelle.bsky.social•59 days ago

The earth is screaming for relief!

liannewildlife.bsky.social•60 days ago

📌

imnotjack.bsky.social•58 days ago

I think the people modeling the ecological failure are not taking into account how exponential the collapse will be. I'm not a climatologist, but I know enough say with confidence that at some point something is going to break and it will be the equivalent of removing a dam from a river all at once

fifi65.bsky.social•57 days ago

Maybe you're right. I don't know because I'm not a climatologist. So I'll leave the science to them. At this point we need our gvts to mitigate against the worst of climate change. It's gonna be shit. No getting away from that. It already is for so many.
We aso need to try & stop it getting worse.

imnotjack.bsky.social•57 days ago

even if we stop all pollution this moment, the climate would continue worsening before it began to improve. Ironically after 9/11 when air traffic was shut down for 3 days, the lack of contrails blocking the Sun caused an increase in temp. So it's more complicated than simply stopping pollution

fifi65.bsky.social•57 days ago

Yeah, I know it's complicated. Maybe mitigation is all we've got.

rita558.bsky.social•59 days ago

Yes we are! Rain instead of snow. Been in Ontario over 35 years. Something is going on. Torrential rains. Something is happening.

ozwiltshire.bsky.social•57 days ago

It wouldn't be climate change would it?

rita558.bsky.social•56 days ago

No such thing! 🤣🤣🤣

billt51.bsky.social•59 days ago

50o overnight temps in upstate NY yesterday. Never happened before on 12/29th!

rita558.bsky.social•59 days ago

Never experienced rain and warm temperatures like this. In 20 yrs never had to pump down pool due to rain! No freezing! Little snow and very heavy wet stuff.

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