Indeed @simonameiler.bsky.social picked it up and did a great job, whatever was doable with a few academic models. But any near-future effort will still have to contend with the fact that most clim risk models are private and most vendors see little incentive to intercompare. - ThreadSky

adamsobel.bsky.social • 114 days ago

Indeed @simonameiler.bsky.social picked it up and did a great job, whatever was doable with a few academic models. But any near-future effort will still have to contend with the fact that most clim risk models are private and most vendors see little incentive to intercompare.

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scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com•114 days ago

you might've already considered this avenue, but during the IUCRC process, it became obvious that many of their customers -- insurers and reinsurers -- would be VERY keen on exactly that sort of model comparison. Maybe the vendors would come if the invitation came from us?

kellyhereid.bsky.social•114 days ago

Dickie Whitaker is kicking off a new initiative to at least standardize model outputs to improve/streamline model intercomparison, and appears to be trying to rope in a lot of the industry heavyweights. I'll send you his way.

adamsobel.bsky.social•114 days ago

IMO the way to go is to build up the climate risk modeling capability in the public sector, where intercomparison and openness are the norm. I don't think there's another feasible way out of the opaque wild west situation we currently have.

dbonowitz.bsky.social•114 days ago

It takes a combination of government mandates -- high standards + rare leadership -- and enlightened self-interest. Both come after crisis.

Local gov can do this with a little more nuance, but the best role for Feds is to set basic high goals/standards, then start writing checks (IRA, BIL, etc.).

crispapoll.bsky.social•114 days ago

This would be great but could be challenging & slow. As a first step, synergistic with the big goal, would it make sense to have something like standards, benchmarks, etc., for many hazards, risks, sectors, end-users, etc.,? Maybe something like Fl Commission has?

adamsobel.bsky.social•114 days ago

Sure but who has the authority to impose standards and benchmarks if govt is unable or uninterested?

crispapoll.bsky.social•114 days ago

The public climate services would require full ability/interest of gov. In contrast, academic/private/public partnerships to determine standards could be credible & legitimate and something for any interested party to consult, if not backed by the imprimatur of the fed gov

adamsobel.bsky.social•114 days ago

I'm not sure how effective a set of voluntary standards on private models will be if the modelers are not interested in being evaluated or compared. Users would have to demand it, I suspect (as opp to academics calling for it). I'd be in favor of trying though!

crispapoll.bsky.social•114 days ago

I don't know either. I know some public sector end-users who demand this but would also feel disheartened by having no option that meets the standards. Since it's an important precursor to any public modeling effort, it seems like a good start. It could combat misleading claims about validation

crispapoll.bsky.social•114 days ago

I'm thinking of standards as different than regulations/requirements. I think a lot of end-users want guidance. If the private firms can't show they meet certain standards, end-users will trust them less. Public climate services could be designed to meet them, but we might not get that for a while

kellyhereid.bsky.social•114 days ago

Bill to introduce something along these lines introduced in the last Congress. Hopefully still some room to run here.

adamsobel.bsky.social•114 days ago

Does it stand any chance?

kellyhereid.bsky.social•114 days ago

A question I leave to the political types.

akjackson.bsky.social•114 days ago

I recently was on a climate change taskforce for the Episcopal diocese of Texas, and I was amazed at how different the wildfire risks were from First Street and from Texas A&M. Almost no correlation between them.

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