The start of this week was wild. Lots of people in Westminster got completely carried away with Tory wishful thinking that Rachel Reeves was about to be replaced. Why did this obviously daft idea get taken seriously? I've figured it out. I blame the noobs. 🧵 - ThreadSky

theobertram.bsky.social • 38 days ago

The start of this week was wild. Lots of people in Westminster got completely carried away with Tory wishful thinking that Rachel Reeves was about to be replaced. Why did this obviously daft idea get taken seriously?

I've figured it out. I blame the noobs.

🧵

Comments

ooaabarbara.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thank you for reminding us of the chaos that was the previous administration, and that it was abnormal (to say the least!). People have such short memories about politics

garriecoleman.bsky.social•38 days ago

Great thread.

theobertram.bsky.social•38 days ago

Anyone who arrived in Westminster from 2019 is conditioned to expect a Chancellor to get just 1 Budget, 2 at best (or for Sajid Javid: none). We had 6 Chancellors from 2019 to 2022: 1 every 196.5 days. Reeves reached 196.5 days Tuesday, triggering the noobs' Pavlovian response.

theobertram.bsky.social•38 days ago

But the post 2019 burn rate is not normal. Chancellors typically endure. Between Geoffrey Howe's arrival in 1979 & George Osborne's departure in 2016, we had just 8 Chancellors over 37 years: 1 every 4.5 years. If Reeves matches that average, that gives her until August 27, 2028.

theobertram.bsky.social•38 days ago

It is worth observing *why* Chancellors have resigned, to understand the *when*. There are only five reasons why Chancellors have prematurely left No11 in the last five decades and we can measure Reeves’ likelihood of leaving against each of them.

theobertram.bsky.social•38 days ago

1. They become PM – John Major in 1990 and Gordon Brown in 2007 stopped being Chancellor because they became Prime Minister. Is this about to happen for Reeves? No.

theobertram.bsky.social•38 days ago

2. Bitter ideological difference with the boss – Geoffrey Howe sunk the knife into Margaret Thatcher after disagreeing on direction; Kwasi Kwarteng was fired by Liz Truss for telling her to slow down. Does Reeves have a similar burning ideological difference with Starmer? Not a jot.

theobertram.bsky.social•38 days ago

3. Duel to the death with No10 advisers – Nigel Lawson eventually resigned when Margaret Thatcher’s economic adviser kept briefing against him, & Sajid Javid quit after fighting with Dominic Cummings, who had sacked one of his advisers. Is Reeves in a duel with No10 advisers? Nope.

parkertron.bsky.social•38 days ago

Geoffrey Howe did not resign as Chancellor. He was foreign secretary from 1983 to 89. His famous speech followed his resignation as Leader of the House.

ariehkovler.com•38 days ago

It's exactly the same with the people believing or insisting that Starmer will quit soon because he had a rocky few months start. That's not normally how it works with PMs! The post-Brexit Tory insanity has just infected everyone

adrian-of-oceania.bsky.social•38 days ago

Quite. Norman Lamont survived the ERM debacle.

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