One things leads to another but I don’t think you get the collapse of Assad’s regime without Israel’s successful campaign against Hezbollah (and Ukraine’s against Russia).
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Maybe? I guess at the start of the year it seemed like Assad had mostly won, at the costs of reliance on help and a very brittle governance. I think your point will be a long argued by poli sci and historians, especially about regime collapse.
He would still be in power today, but he might not have been in power 6-12 months from now. Russia had proved itself weaker than it looked in Ukraine, and eventually the axis of resistance was going to be tested.
The one question mark is an Iranian nuke, I think.
The one pushback/critique that springs to mind is that this narrative might serve to excuse/justify further uses of force. Maybe too reductive, but this telling can be taken as force worked to Israel's benefit in lieu of any diplomacy or not using force.
I think "force worked" is one way to look at it, but i think it might be better to think of it as "force revealed." Hamas and Hezbollah were always weaker, relative to Israel, than they were perceived. What broke the illusion was not aggression by Israel, but against Israel.
That paragraph, to me, seem to demonstrate that Israel's responses to Iran have effectively constrained and deterred Iran, lest they provoke yet another direct confrontation in which they lose more than they gain.
Certainly not so relatively without bloodshed. If Hezbollah had a fighting force, and Iran wasn’t worried about Israeli prevention of force transfers (reports isr indicated it would down Ir troop planes) they may have tried to put up a fight.
Yes, and also: Israel's exposure of Iran itself as less capable than had been widely supposed. The assassinations of a key IRGC leader in Damascus and Haniyeh IN TEHRAN ITSELF, the successful defence against Iran's airborne attacks, and the destruction of Iran's air defenses. Perceptions changed!
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Absent Oct 7, would Assad still be in power?
The one question mark is an Iranian nuke, I think.
Same as you don’t get the collapse of the Assad regime without the Ukrainians + the sanctions draining the blood out Russia.
A perfect open political structure