The index of Russian government bonds continues to fall. The price falls - the yield grows. The higher the yield - the more expensive the lending - the higher the risk of bankruptcy - ThreadSky

evgen-istrebin.bsky.social • 19 days ago

The index of Russian government bonds continues to fall.
The price falls - the yield grows. The higher the yield - the more expensive the lending - the higher the risk of bankruptcy

Comments

hawkattack.bsky.social•18 days ago

Evgen, can you explain how this correlates differently than previous drops? On this very chart, bonds fell lower than they are now and then went up at the end of the year (I assume due to the government paying it's bills). Does the decline this early in the year indicate that bonds could collapse?

malignant-obs.bsky.social•19 days ago

Why the spike on the new year?

indiamo.bsky.social•18 days ago

Window dressing?

hermgamma.bsky.social•19 days ago

One could theorise that some players did circular trades at small volumes to help with year end valuations.

malignant-obs.bsky.social•19 days ago

I am not sure but isn't the stuff at the bottom the traded volume? If so, it wasn't small.

hermgamma.bsky.social•19 days ago

True. It would be really interesting to understand what traded how. For institutions using some fair value either through PnL or OCI it is really, really convenient that the price rallied into year end. It has been known to happen that things trade around that time for valuation purposes.

evgen-istrebin.bsky.social•19 days ago

Вы все правильно написали.
Я думаю это Министерство финансов сделало обратный выкуп

hermgamma.bsky.social•19 days ago

The move may also have fed through to corporate bonds as they are usually marked with a spread to government bonds. There may be other explanations but if it were true it would be a very desperate and obvious move to collectively cook the books into year end. 10% in price is massive.

evgen-istrebin.bsky.social•19 days ago

Выше цена - меньше резервов - больше прибыль - выше премии )))

hermgamma.bsky.social•19 days ago

Did they have the cash? Else they could trade it off market with delayed settlement and a side agreement to do the return leg later settling on the same date and report each leg on ‘trade date’. No cash or securities would have to change hands. That may explains the high volume in January.

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