This is despite a 2024 with a hell of a flu season that hit the NHS hard, despite low economic growth and what feels like a return to mini-austerity, it's just really good news. You can see the pre-COVID trend, impact of the waves of infection and slow return to trend in this time-step sequence. - ThreadSky

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paulmainwood.bsky.social • 42 days ago

This is despite a 2024 with a hell of a flu season that hit the NHS hard, despite low economic growth and what feels like a return to mini-austerity, it's just really good news.
You can see the pre-COVID trend, impact of the waves of infection and slow return to trend in this time-step sequence.

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andyd.net•42 days ago

Yay, we are alive. Could the story behind the data be that many people who would have died of old age in 2024, died with Covid in 2020/21?

mikewwilson.bsky.social•42 days ago

Although theoretically possible, for this to account for much of the improvements would require the population left behind after the pandemic to be healthier, and isn't consistent with the known patterns of many Covid survivors experiencing health problems.1/3

mikewwilson.bsky.social•42 days ago

Instead the (very real) after-effects of Covid are simply not enough to offset improvements in human health driven by things like new treatments and diagnostic techniques 2/3

mikewwilson.bsky.social•42 days ago

Bad as it was, in the interests of not overstating Covid's effects, most people are surprised to hear the age standardised mortality rates in 2020 (peak pandemic) were better than in every year up to and including 2003. 3/3

mikewwilson.bsky.social•42 days ago

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12735annualdeathsandmortalityrates1938to2020provisional

zetkin.bsky.social•42 days ago

I thought the figures were age standardised?

mikewwilson.bsky.social•42 days ago

They are, yes, so the direct effects of the pandemic changing the age structure of the population won't affect the numbers. But in theory Covid could have killed disproportionately weak people (at each age), leaving a more robust population behind.

I don't think that's a big part of this, though.

zetkin.bsky.social•42 days ago

I agree. Have to admit I find the new standardisation method confusing.

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