Our analysis of the geography of GE2024 is now out in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... - ThreadSky

drjennings.bsky.social • 126 days ago

Our analysis of the geography of GE2024 is now out in
@politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.13483

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freecitizen864.bsky.social•126 days ago

GE2024 one of the lowest turn outs in history 59.8%. Labour after 14 years of disastrous Tory rule only got 32% of vote. Yet it has over 60% of seats in Parliament, the most disproportionate result in history of FPTP. Yet you speak as if we have a functioning electoral system.

realthomasbell.bsky.social•126 days ago

Exciting title about place-based politics but the abstract discussed national trends! (Still working through the graphs.)

drjennings.bsky.social•126 days ago

While the electoral tide went out on the Conservative Party in 2024 to devastating effect, the structural cleavages that underpin the electoral geography of Britain only shifted slightly.

drjennings.bsky.social•126 days ago

Despite a slight reversal of recent trends, in terms of social class based differences in electoral geography, the long-term picture remains one of *dealignment* not realignment.

drjennings.bsky.social•126 days ago

An area being heavily working class is not a strong predictor of the Conservative vote and nor was it in 2019, contrary to what a great deal of commentary would imply.

drjennings.bsky.social•126 days ago

The opposite trend is observed for education, which has also dealigned. The correlation between the number of university graduates in a constituency and the Conservative and Labour vote share was close to zero (as Labour did slightly better in areas with fewer graduates compared to 2019).

drjennings.bsky.social•126 days ago

There was a slight weakening of divides in electoral geography based on age, ethnic minorities, and deprivation (measured with poor health) but these were all slight rebounds from 2019 rather than fundamental reversals.

drjennings.bsky.social•126 days ago

Similarly, the areas where the parties tend to over-perform socio-demographic and socio-economic predictors did not change fundamentally. Labour's heartlands in the North of England grew (notably extending to more rural areas as well as Merseyside, Manchester and parts of Yorkshire).

rmassam.bsky.social•126 days ago

No comments on the other parties. LibDems and Greens progressive parties ( left of Labour) did significantly better than the media predicted. Sorry but this is just amplifying a two party election, far from the actual results.

rachelhart.co.uk•125 days ago

📌

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