Turkey's attitude towards Ukraine, a thread. 1. There is only marginal emotional investment in Ukraine one way or another in domestic politics. a. Economic fallout b. Demonstrations of Turkey's importance play well c. Pro-forma support for Ukraine's control of Crimea - ThreadSky

heissenstat.bsky.social • 8 days ago

Turkey's attitude towards Ukraine, a thread.

1. There is only marginal emotional investment in Ukraine one way or another in domestic politics.
a. Economic fallout
b. Demonstrations of Turkey's importance play well
c. Pro-forma support for Ukraine's control of Crimea

Comments

heissenstat.bsky.social•8 days ago

2. Turkey has, throughout the war, played both sides off the middle. It doesn't want a total Russian victory, but it also believes that good relations with Putin are necessary. So it has cooperated with both Ukraine and Russia throughout the war. That trend will continue.

heissenstat.bsky.social•8 days ago

3. TR's *formal* position is all Ukrainian territory should be free. This is only formal position. It reflects:

a. Domestic considerations on Crimea
b. A general inclination to support international law when Ankara doesn't have a specific stake.
c. Europe (see #4 below)

heissenstat.bsky.social•8 days ago

4. The larger story is that TR is trying to balance its desire to cooperate w. Russia and its need to contain it. It is a policy based as much on fear as hope. A big focus is participating in an emerging European security structure. Being openly pro-Ukraine helps that case

heissenstat.bsky.social•8 days ago

Personal view: The decline of NATO and the strong disinclination of Europe to include Ankara into the emerging security structures constitute a tremendous strategic challenge for Ankara.

kaderariz.bsky.social•8 days ago

Hehe, wrote something similar a few weeks past.

https://bsky.app/profile/kaderariz.bsky.social/post/3li4nu76mfc2l

heissenstat.bsky.social•8 days ago

I spoke to some experts who are *very* close to Turkey's foreign policy establishment and, post-Assad, they were acting "like the cat that swallowed the canary," extremely confident and self-satisfied. The assumption seemed to be "Europe has to include us."

heissenstat.bsky.social•8 days ago

I don't get the sense that Turkish officials realize how perilous their situation is. They are feeling pretty confident in the wake of the collapse of the Assad regime. I think they're actually in an extremely dangerous moment.