🚨urban economics research siren🚨
This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model.
The results imply upzoning led to:
- a 24% increase in floorspace; and
- a 15 to 27% fall in house prices.
Paper here: https://t.co/VhlUfIgsTD
This new paper analyses the effects of upzoning in Auckland by first specifying and second estimating an urban economic model.
The results imply upzoning led to:
- a 24% increase in floorspace; and
- a 15 to 27% fall in house prices.
Paper here: https://t.co/VhlUfIgsTD
1 / 2
Comments
Upzoning reduces the former (lower prices) but increases the latter (higher volumes).
Inspections at the time of property transfer, even. They’re beginning to come around on up zoning, because so many buyers are getting priced out by conversion to short-term rentals.
- this paper complements previous empirical work by using a model to analyse long run effects
- compared to previous studies, it finds larger effects on supply but similar effects on price
- the latter may suggest price falls are, in the long run, attenuated via endogenous mechanisms
1 assumes a monocentric CBD, in reality Auckland is highly polycentric
2 in creating model assumes that housing units are priced only by distance to CBD, eg a condo and a single family home cost same if same distance from CBD 1/
Interesting paper, extends the model, skeptical of its application to Auckland given its assumptions. 2/2
- Land prices decline strongly with distance to the centre
- >80% of workers commute in *towards* the centre
Noting that the classical monocentric model is analogous to a more general monodirectional model, where workers commute towards (not necesarily to) the centre.
This map (seemingly in agreement) https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6ec8c0769a2d4f42bbfb982796883dd1 & attached. So at very least it’s contested.