When should children get vaccinated against #measles? Is there an optimal age? If so, what affects this optimal age? In our new #NatureComms paper, led by @egoult.bsky.social, we explore these questions using #mathematicalmodeling: https://rdcu.be/d0ktY.
Read the 🧵 for a summary of our findings 👇 (1/8)
Read the 🧵 for a summary of our findings 👇 (1/8)
Comments
The later a child is vaccinated, the more likely the #vaccine will protect them against measles, but this risks the child getting measles before being vaccinated.
The optimal age to recommend measles #vaccination should minimize the combination of these risks, resulting in the fewest possible measles cases. Here, we develop a method using mathematical modeling to calculate this optimal age.
We applied the method in various synthetic populations with varying characteristics that might affect the optimal age. We then identified the influential factors: the transmission level, vaccination coverage, and social contact structure.
Increased transmission increases the risk of getting infected before vaccination, shifting the minimal overall risks to younger ages. Moving from low to high transmission decreased the optimal age by 3.7 months.
Increased vaccination leads to reduced transmission, reducing the risk of catching measles before getting vaccinated. A 10 % point increase in vaccine coverage increased the optimal age by 0.6 months.
Which age groups socialize with which age groups substantially impacted the optimal ages, shifting the optimal age by up to 7 months.