How do you combine simple atmospheric dispersion modelling trajectories like this with environmental data and population biology knowledge to make short- and long-term predictions of desert locust swarm migration?
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By using concepts from epidemiological modelling, we (@camplantsci.bsky.social, @metoffice.bsky.social and @fao.org) have developed an integrated modelling framework for doing just this!
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Paper (open access): https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012562
Press release: https://phys.org/news/2024-12-early-tool-huge-locust-swarms.amp