But he can't win sprints. And no, he probably wouldn't win 2-3 stages because it's way, way harder to win break-away stages than it is sprints and especially small group sprints. There probably won't even be 2-3 mountain break-away stages.
Winning stages yes. Idk sometimes he had a weird vibe where Wout kind of checks out just like the 2022 cobble stage and only got activated because of the emergency with Jonas his bike and stuff 🤖
Yes, he sometimes just checks out, which annoys me too. But overall he's a big asset in GTs. This year in the Tour he clearly wasn't in shape, but then again Visma had no one else in shape that could've gone instead (Lemmen replacing Kuss was already dire) so it's not like he took anyone's spot.
Wout was the biggest asset to the team this year since 2020 because he was actually used as a rouleur domestique at times which is where he's best and didn't demand too much freedom.
That is true, but he got so many second and third places that you can't really base predictions on that. In terms of his future winning chances, a top 3 where he was within 20cms of the win is almost as much of an indicator as a win.
And yes, Wout 100% has better chances than Matteo in most stages.
Wout had two 2nd places in 2024. And no, Matteo's 2nd on Isola is not the same, because according to Matteo, his DSs told him afterwards that they had calculated if Pogacar went for it, at full gas Matteo needed 4min30 to stay away. He had a bit over 4min and lost by 21s. So he never stood a chance.
That should be an interesting debate on Visma LAB in 2025. Assuming booth Wout and Matteo both rider the Tour. Plus were does that leave Simon Yates in Tour super domestique discussion?
- Wout was used as a mountain dom in majority of stages he helped others
- he had freedom in 80-90% of flat/punchy stages in 2022/23
- Matteo is just a better climber, an elite rouleur and puncheur as well, so better as a mountain dom and equal as a sattellitte
-Matteo is 100% committed to Jonas
I'm a big Matteo fan and overall you're right, but Wout still has an edge as a domestique on classics-like stages shepherding Jonas through the peloton based on his size and the respect he gets. For now.
Matteo was way stronger in gravel this year + usually Wout has freedom on such stages anyways which just creates more tenison in the team. And it's not like Wout has that much better classics palmares than Matteo in last 2 years😅
You're disregarding WVA's injury here. A prime Tdf WVA (or WVA in this year's Vuelta form) is way stronger on stages with classic, gravel, sprint and hilly profiles. Not saying he'd be a better domestique though, and I kind of don't want him to be either.
You're disregarding Matteo then too. He's just behind wout in classics and i think he'll imorove again, while wout hasnt really shown improvement in 2023 and in start of 2024
Wout won Kbk, Matteo came 66th that's way behind. His best results in classics last season was 5th in E3, where WVA came 3rd. I'm not saying Wout can win a stacked PN like Matteo, but in classics there's a huge gap in level even with 2023 or build up '24 WVA.
Your reading too much into Wout's form when he was just coming back from an injury. I do think Matteo is a better climber and can almost match wout as classics help. Where Wout is so important is as a satalite rider, he is the best in the world at getting in the break when he's on form
Jorgenson 24 better than Wout 2023 in a mtn train and also as a sattellite. You're underrating how elite Matteo is on flat and punchy terrain too and as a sattellite it's super important to be a top20-30 climber
I think getting in a break is more than just strength it involves some tactics and I feel like Wout gets in the break when he wants, whereas virtually every other rider occasionally misses it. If I were visma, I'd take both with Wout going in breaks and Matteo in the mountain train with kuss/yates
It seems to work tbf
The biggest problem with Wout is that he wants the freedom of being a leader. If you look at the hilly stages in week 1 of the tour2025 I'd argue Wout is probably the best rider to help guide Jonas through those stages but he'll want his own glory leaving Jonas with weaker help
My point was that we shouldnt pretend like Wout's a break going genius and Jorgenson is bad....
Imo there aren't many things wout is better at than jorg and as a sattellite rider, climbing ability is often more important than ability on flats (also better recovery). And jorg is an elite rouleur too
My feeling is it will depend on how Wout is going to perform in spring. If he is able to win RVV or Roubaix he will be at Pogacar dropping levels again. If not, he is going to be meh like last years. Idk why and if it makes sense but it’s a gut feeling 😛
Wouts training in Denia atm but he doesn’t seem to be pushing it. I think he’s a long way to go to get back to TDF 2024 levels. I hope he does. When he attacks he’s awesome.
Pogi will be on a different level at Flanders, I am not even 100% sure Mathieu will be able to stay close. I forgive Pogi because he is in the rainbow jersey and I need to make those pictures 😁 However I can’t have Mathieu not winning a single Monument next season so sorry Mads, Wout, etc 😉
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But as Tour de France *rider*, Wout is still more value as he has a way higher chance to win stages, as well as being a useful domestique.
This is based on the fact that Visma do aim at stages in addition to GC in the TdF. I'm too tired for a discussion if they should or not 😅
With Jorg it is in hilly and mtn stages.
Also Wout won a total of 0 (zero) stages in last 2 TdFs
And yes, Wout 100% has better chances than Matteo in most stages.
Wout/Kooij, Laporte, van Baarle, Benoot/Kelderman
- he had freedom in 80-90% of flat/punchy stages in 2022/23
- Matteo is just a better climber, an elite rouleur and puncheur as well, so better as a mountain dom and equal as a sattellitte
-Matteo is 100% committed to Jonas
(And it's not like Matteo isnt a big guy)
This year in the gravel stage Matteo was ELITE
The biggest problem with Wout is that he wants the freedom of being a leader. If you look at the hilly stages in week 1 of the tour2025 I'd argue Wout is probably the best rider to help guide Jonas through those stages but he'll want his own glory leaving Jonas with weaker help
Imo there aren't many things wout is better at than jorg and as a sattellite rider, climbing ability is often more important than ability on flats (also better recovery). And jorg is an elite rouleur too