Matteo Jorgenson would win 2-3 TdF stages on average + KOM if he had Wout freedom. And he's not even in his prime yet. - ThreadSky

tratnikstan.bsky.social • 133 days ago

Matteo Jorgenson would win 2-3 TdF stages on average + KOM if he had Wout freedom.

And he's not even in his prime yet.

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goldbluebirdie.bsky.social•133 days ago

He tried this year and didn't win, because breaks don't win TdF mountain stages anymore 🤷‍♀️

tratnikstan.bsky.social•133 days ago

If visma dont pace behind, there'll be more stages to win.

goldbluebirdie.bsky.social•133 days ago

Visma paced one mountain stage in the entire race this year. A stage that if Visma hadn't paced, UAE would have paced with 100% certainty.

tratnikstan.bsky.social•133 days ago

I think uae would let the break win

organicmeasure.bsky.social•133 days ago

With current mountain stage precedence id say 2-3 is too much. 1 +kom I can believe

tratnikstan.bsky.social•133 days ago

Think this year was an extreme in that sense. Also next year there'll be a few more hilly break stages imo (6/7, 10, 11, 15, 20) with stage 16 (Ventoux) likely to go to break too with the flat first part imo

pogi-mitoma-fan.bsky.social•133 days ago

That’s a crazy take. With no mountain breakaways winning in this era I don’t think he gets more than 1 a year

tratnikstan.bsky.social•133 days ago

I think there'll be more mtn break wins in the future and in this scenario, Visma don't pace in mtn stages if they have Matteo ahead for the stage.

He can win barodeur stages, punchy stages, hilly breaks and mountain breaks.

goldbluebirdie.bsky.social•133 days ago

He doesn't have a sprint. Like he can't sprint for shit. He only wins if he arrives alone, which is certainly possible, but hard to do reliably (in addition to getting in the break in the first place, which he won't always be allowed, and then the break staying away, which won't always happen).

tratnikstan.bsky.social•132 days ago

If he gets 7-9 days of freedom to go in the break, i'm certain he can win at least 2 stages.

I also dont think there will be so few mtn breaks every year + there were very few proper hilly stages this year

pogi-mitoma-fan.bsky.social•133 days ago

I see your point but if this year was anything to go off he would need more punch to win the hilly stages and I don’t think there will be a ton of mountain stage breaks, especially if Remco gets to the level of the other 2

tratnikstan.bsky.social•132 days ago

He has elite 1-5 min power though, which is exactly what you need for hills

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