In 2025, Trump’s tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by $258.4 billion, or 0.85 percent of GDP, making the tariffs the largest tax hike since 1982.
The tariffs are larger than the tax increases enacted under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.
We estimate that Trump's tariffs will reduce US GDP by 0.7 percent, hours worked by 605,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and after-tax incomes by an average of 1.9 percent—before accounting for foreign retaliation.
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The tariffs are larger than the tax increases enacted under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.
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