everyone dismissing the idea of sending Elon to prison "because Trump will pardon him" is assuming the drug addict with no impulse control whatsoever who sieg heil'd on day one is gonna make it 1400+ days on great terms with his boss (he has never had a boss before)
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Madoff and SBF found that out the hard way.
Imagine if Trump began to suspect that Musk was stealing from him. Trump's protection would dry up instantly, at the least.
You make good points about Musk's actual power, but Trump could evaporate it all with an Executive Order if he wanted. Elon serves at Trump's whim now that the election is over.
Can't speak to your second example, but SBF had a spreadsheet with made up numbers. He didn't just lack important allies, his whole thing was barely putting clothes on.
SBF was always doomed. Elon keeps failing upward.
All it will take is one brave software engineer with nothing to lose to roll out a time delayed virus in one of the firmware updates to brick every single Tesla on 4/20.