For the record my personal prediction about Brexit was always that it'd be a bit crap. Not apocalyptically bad, just the UK being a bit poorer forever while not actually satisfying the inchoate emotional dissatisfactions that drove it. Thus far I'm vindicated. www.theguardian.com/politics/202... - ThreadSky

lastpositivist.bsky.social • 80 days ago

For the record my personal prediction about Brexit was always that it'd be a bit crap. Not apocalyptically bad, just the UK being a bit poorer forever while not actually satisfying the inchoate emotional dissatisfactions that drove it. Thus far I'm vindicated.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/18/brexit-cost-uk-27bn-in-lost-trade-in-first-two-years-review-finds

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petergratton.bsky.social•80 days ago

I thought about the same—but this was a bit of a cheat: every major U.K. policy shift of the past several decades can be described thus.

lastpositivist.bsky.social•80 days ago

Yeah lmao our national policy of, like, slight degrowth - not enough to be environmentally beneficial, but just enough to make everything a bit more rubbish than it needs to be. More than a policy; a vibe, an ethos.

petergratton.bsky.social•80 days ago

The difference between being in the U.K. in, say, 2005 and 2015 and then today reminds me of being on a train in the U.S. seeing backyards where a vibrant mid class life once occurred (above ground pool, garden boxes etc) is now overgrown and falling apart with six cars parked on the grass.

petergratton.bsky.social•80 days ago

By the way, this is exactly what I see on the Long Island Rail Road heading out of NYC each year when in NY for Xmas—each house tells a story abt the middle class in America with kids moving in, no money for upkeep, and just cars parked everywhere.

robotchihuahua.bsky.social•79 days ago

Measuring Brexit by short term impacts was always silly anyway. Like of course the inevitable disruption is worth considering, but those will inevitably be outwieghed by longer term impacts*.

* I'm with you on these - bad but not disasterous. Just a bit silly overall.

johnbriggsh.bsky.social•79 days ago

Depends on the severity of the impact, does it not? An immediate impact was that millions of people - and future generations- were deprived of their rights to freely move, work, and settle in EU member states. More significant than a bit shit.

robotchihuahua.bsky.social•79 days ago

That sounds like a long term impact if you ask me.

Also while I'm with you that end of free movement to/from the EU is a big blow, the reality is that it hasn't actually affected the actual movement of people that much. Indeed immigration into the UK has never been higher.

robotchihuahua.bsky.social•79 days ago

Unfortunately I think there is always going to be a tradeoff between EU and international migration due to populist concerns, and given that choice I think I would pick international.

sisyphusredeemed.bsky.social•80 days ago

Honestly, I'm surprised it wasn't a lot more.

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