Was talking about this with some folks. It’s been 10 days now, there’s been an uptick in booking last week but now it’s back to the pre-deal lows; most folks I talk to think that was just stuff sitting in a warehouse getting shoved on a boat, we’re not seeing any signs of new movement - ThreadSky

sky.skymarchini.net • 30 days ago

Was talking about this with some folks. It’s been 10 days now, there’s been an uptick in booking last week but now it’s back to the pre-deal lows; most folks I talk to think that was just stuff sitting in a warehouse getting shoved on a boat, we’re not seeing any signs of new movement

Reposted from Carl Quintanilla

APOLLO: “The lack of a rebound in container traffic after the China-US trade deal on May 12 is worrying.” [Slok]

Comments

hardtimes2025.bsky.social•30 days ago

We had suppliers that stopped production as soon as the tariffs hit. They didn't want to expose themselves to more cost, so they just suspended our production where it was. When we told them to ship, they said they needed some time to finish.
Suppose it's the same all over.

moldyteeth.bsky.social•30 days ago

Because no one knows if he’ll just pull the rug out from under them again.

urbwes.bsky.social•30 days ago

My friend owns a music instrument store and one of his suppliers simply isn't putting in orders. Not even at the 30%. All their instruments are made in China.

kjpkjp.bsky.social•30 days ago

I’ve been worried about with this. How to rebuild trust? The China deal is half baked and temporary, new tariff threats on horizon. The thing that is needed is for congress to remove Trumps tariff powers so trading parters can know things won’t change. Unfortunately Rs won’t do that.

goldensama.bsky.social•30 days ago

Trump does a lot of things he doesn’t have the power to do. Congress and the Courts have either refused or failed to stop him. The only way to fix this is to remove Trump from power entirely.

kjpkjp.bsky.social•30 days ago

For sure. But in this case the power to set tariffs that congress delegated to the president must be repealed. Otherwise trading partners can’t trust the next guy won’t do the same shit. As we may be seeing even when a deal is made nobody can trust it. That power must be removed from ALL presidents.

goldensama.bsky.social•30 days ago

100% agree

ouranocracy.bsky.social•29 days ago

So is the Trumpdämmerung back on then?

thedenature.bsky.social•30 days ago

Why would anyone take the risk, not knowing if tariff rates could change in a week?

grths.bsky.social•30 days ago

Businesses don't like to gamble? I'm shocked.

dmisemer.bsky.social•30 days ago

I'm expecting empty shelves by July.

facedamuzk.bsky.social•30 days ago

From a few days back:
https://bsky.app/profile/thrasybulus42.bsky.social/post/3lpivddmwyc2i

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

Btw the “50% tariff on Europe” thing is gonna make this worse because companies already didn’t trust that this pause was gonna last and now its even less secure

persistentpoasting.bsky.social•30 days ago

50% is probably enough to convince the last stragglers that opening a coercion case against the US is warranted. At which point we see the commission off the leash with trade retaliation measures.
Normally retaliation measures has to be agreed on individually by member states.
Not so with the ACI.

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

it's kinda funny how they thought they'd first use the ACI against china and are instead gonna end up firing it against the US

persistentpoasting.bsky.social•29 days ago

Even when you remember the reason it wasn't used against china is because they didn't want the smoke.

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

you know, it's kinda strange. indicators are either saying "HOLY FUCKING SHIT" or "everything is basically fine" and it's getting really hard to square those two

kermitology.bsky.social•30 days ago

Are you following this guy?

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

he's more of a maritime guy than a supply chain guy (no beef, just not my area really)

bumblebike.bsky.social•30 days ago

He’s here too, @mercoglianos.bsky.social

huwupy.kawaii.social•30 days ago

the people who know what they're doing (bond traders) are screaming HOLY SHIT, the easily-led panicky idiots (stock traders) are doing what they always do (not noticing the house is on fire)

drewturner.bsky.social•29 days ago

Tbf the bond traders prices actually affect the direct economy where the stock trade money going up and down, even drastically, does far less to the economy immediately. Sure, over time, bad stock news can affect jobs & such, but those bonds create real damage immediately by affecting interest rates

drewturner.bsky.social•29 days ago

I'm way way more concerned when the bond traders are scared.

mgraalum.bsky.social•30 days ago

I keep wondering what is going to be the Cancelling the NCAA Tournament for this cycle.

Personally I'm on team Elon Musk's Personal Bankruptcy

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

guy at the radio club was telling me tonight he just bought more tesla stock and i'm like... buddy

franks2000inch.tv•30 days ago

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt. Reality has a way of asserting itself.

cripdyke.bsky.social•30 days ago

Every time I read a post from you I have to double check your name isn't "Sky Martini".

I just thought you should know that.

No, I am not a drunk. Why do you ask?

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

common misspelling i get a lot

mediocrcscientist.bsky.social•30 days ago

It's not a crisis/problem until it is.

speedlimit9.bsky.social•30 days ago

Lot of very smart businessmen™️ with their heads firmly in the sand.

kevinriggle.bsky.social•30 days ago

...fuck, what the fuck, when did this happen

eachdayanotherpage.bsky.social•30 days ago

I believe it was threatened yesterday, not officially enacted yet. But naturally that's not going to encourage trade.

kevinriggle.bsky.social•30 days ago

So we're all just sitting tight until someone more reasonable is in charge

goldensama.bsky.social•30 days ago

News broke today, I’m not sure if it’s officially been done or Trump is just saying he wants it; but he’s clearly not done fucking the global economy.

kevinriggle.bsky.social•30 days ago

Doing trade policy like he's a DM rolling on the random encounter table

isaiahbishop.bsky.social•30 days ago

Im trying to get a feel about how lending is working tbh. Like if retailers are working 4-6 months out and basically stocking an extra 15 days of inventory, what do those financing terms look like as we go on

persistentpoasting.bsky.social•30 days ago

My issue then is also just "is that lending secure or does it risk getting hit by retaliatory measures"

isaiahbishop.bsky.social•30 days ago

Well its going to live in interest rates somehow

persistentpoasting.bsky.social•30 days ago

I'm not sure current financing includes the risk of the ACI being spooled all the way up against the us tbh. The chain of events needed to make that happen is so stupid and so extreme that it's basically unthinkable.

tomek-here.bsky.social•30 days ago

ACI?

kiymon.bsky.social•30 days ago

Yeah basically. They're probably going to build up inventory, then shovel it on the boat when the tariffs are low/paused.
Essentially think of the tariffs like an unpredictable break in a storm where you have to guess when it's safe to launch out to sea.

freedoomfries.bsky.social•30 days ago

Tariffs are still relatively high and as we have just seen, these are not incremental increases. 50% is a crazy person's tariff

faeelin.bsky.social•30 days ago

Didn’t peope build up an inventory due to the fear of tariffs?

sky.skymarchini.net•30 days ago

yeah but it should be ending over the next 2-3 weeks and i'm just.... not seeing strains

magafree.bsky.social•29 days ago

China can bear more pain and outlast the US.

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