“Possibility” seems downright optimistic. I will be stunned if we’re not in recession a year from now, barring a pretty radical change of course.
Reposted from
Catherine Rampell
@byheatherlong.bsky.social: A Trump recession has become a real possibility www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
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This is unlikely though.
There's probably going to be a long sustained flow of funds out of the US market. The leader of the free world bubble has been popped.
His incompetence and urge to rashly do dumb shit that he thinks will benefit him in the moment will prevent him from sticking with any plans to improve things and that uncertainty and volatility will do as much damage as anything else.
And even if Elon is ousted, trump's stupidity will still drive uncertainty and cause problems.
Also, the biggest month of job losses since COVID. That will hit consumer spending, causing more job losses.
It's not any one thing, but all of these terrible economic policies add up to slower growth, and likely recession.
Even Wall St believed Trump would help them. Even Wall St discounted tariffs.
Trump's policies take large risks for small benefits. It's Atlantic City 2.0.