The Chiefs' Pythagorean record is 8-5. The Broncos -- with an actual record of 8-5 & a Pythag mark of 8.5 Ws & 4.5 Ls -- have a better point differential at plus-71 than KC's plus-56. Denver is right where it should be. KC is, statistically speaking, a regression candidate. - ThreadSky

masedenver.bsky.social • 85 days ago

The Chiefs' Pythagorean record is 8-5.

The Broncos -- with an actual record of 8-5 & a Pythag mark of 8.5 Ws & 4.5 Ls -- have a better point differential at plus-71 than KC's plus-56.

Denver is right where it should be. KC is, statistically speaking, a regression candidate.

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blueoddball.bsky.social•85 days ago

Pythag isn’t as useful for NFL as MLB. DEN plays a 3rd place schedule, and opp adjustments are really important in assessing results. DEN hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record, for example, until TB went over .500 today.

blueoddball.bsky.social•85 days ago

Another thing to consider is the way KC licks its wounds and manages attrition through the course of the season. They should have lost to LV at least, and probably DEN. But that KC is even in all these games despite the LT, WR, and CB attrition and Kelce aging is a feat in its own right

blueoddball.bsky.social•85 days ago

Each of the 21,22, and 23 teams went through periods of reinventing themselves to reach a form by the end of the season that was battle tested and able to go toe to toe with the best of the league. No different this year except the hill is even steeper.

masedenver.bsky.social•85 days ago

Some of it is experience in such games and preparation for them. Which is why I discount the luck factor in the win over the Broncos. They had a plan for a weakness. But the last two home wins point to a team that is fraying, but still escaping -- for now.

masedenver.bsky.social•85 days ago

What Pythag often does is provide a glimpse into the following season. That's when ascension/regression can come. The Broncos' four worst teams in Pythag difference from actual record through 13 games improved by an average of 4.5 actual wins the following season.

blueoddball.bsky.social•85 days ago

Touché and good context

tingerick.bsky.social•85 days ago

Is KC one of the luckiest teams ever?

dbhiggs.bsky.social•85 days ago

We've got a defense that keeps us in the game, making it possible (and even likely) that our Coach, players and momentum will allow us to pull out the W. Even with a perception of a flashy Offence, Defense wins games. Just my 2 cents.

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