📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere? 250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile. Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com - ThreadSky

guymc.com • 11 days ago

📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere?

250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.

Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com

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Comments

freshexpenses.bsky.social•10 days ago

is it worth Slot to Glasner for a hit?

en9ie.bsky.social•10 days ago

Expected value 3.9 is enticing. But if I do it it's probably a guaranteed -4 in 29 IF I want Haaland. More if injuries arise. 🤔

davidswansea.bsky.social•11 days ago

Great graphics! I’ve started to consider Wolves for the next two games, any thoughts / data on that?

guymc.com•11 days ago

Nothing else from me, they distribute the same as Palace but slightly worse I think

fadabu.bsky.social•11 days ago

Interesting. That would mean, if you move go for Arteta. What about Arteta vs Glasner?

guymc.com•11 days ago

Glasner vs Arteta:

As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!

fplbronx.bsky.social•9 days ago

So we have the less than 1% outcome with 20 point advantage for Glasner?
What a swing.

rossmayfield.bsky.social•11 days ago

Awesome, thanks!

rossmayfield.bsky.social•11 days ago

Here's what AI recommends

guymc.com•11 days ago

Claude should embrace the variance and take a risk for once!

guymc.com•11 days ago

Well it depends on whether you want to risk it for the higher ceiling by picking Glasner

omhays.bsky.social•11 days ago

Exactly. I'm a little bit more convinced now switching (from Slot) is the play, but I still kind of think it's only worth a transfer if you're going for the upside. It's essentially a 1-week punt if you played in 24, and I don't see why you'd apply a different logic than you would with players.
...

omhays.bsky.social•11 days ago

Arteta being odds-on to outscore Slot doesn't mean he'll outscore him by a big enough margin to warrant the transfer. And you forgo the chance of a big haul.

omhays.bsky.social•11 days ago

This, of course, depends on you ft situation, your team and plans for 29 and after. The value of a free transfer isn't the same for everyone.

omhays.bsky.social•11 days ago

Thank you! Top, top stuff.

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