Great coverage of our recent study on 2024 warming and the 1.5°C limit by @tinymaddie.bsky.social here: www.newscientist.com/article/2467... @bevacquae.bsky.social - ThreadSky

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carlschleussner.bsky.social • 13 days ago

Great coverage of our recent study on 2024 warming and the 1.5°C limit by @tinymaddie.bsky.social
here:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2467521-have-we-already-breached-the-1-5c-global-warming-target/
@bevacquae.bsky.social

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carlschleussner.bsky.social•13 days ago

Unfortunately, not everyone is quite that accurate. See exhibit "B" here: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/10/climate/paris-climate-agreement-breach/index.html#:~:text=The%20study%20by%20Alex%20Cannon,has%20already%20likely%20been%20crossed

No, @cnn.com, our paper does NOT suggest that! Entering the 20 year period with an average warming of 1.5°C doesn't mean we have crossed it.

carlschleussner.bsky.social•13 days ago

Exhibit "C":
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-10/it-s-virtually-certain-the-world-has-breached-1-5c-climate-threshold?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
Also not accurate. Everyone who's ever got a ticket for speeding knows that there's a difference between "reaching" a certain average speed, and being fined for having "exceeded" (or breached) a speed limit. 2/

carlschleussner.bsky.social•13 days ago

It's something very different to say to reach an average of 1.5°C, then to say that it's being breached or exceeded. The latter would require an assessment of the probability associated with that and uncertainties around assessing global warming levels remain considerable. 3/

carlschleussner.bsky.social•13 days ago

Our study did assess the best estimate timing of reaching 1.5°C. It doesn’t include an assessment of when this level would be exceeded and with what certainty. Much more, it indicates that very stringent emission reductions in the near-term can still lower the chances of exceeding 1.5°C.

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