It’s not psychology though. It’s diversifying the risk.
It will take 1 goal to wipe 3 clean sheets.
However, if I have 3 defenders from 3 different teams. Then it takes 3 goals to wipe 3 clean sheets.
The other scenario is most likely than the other. It just depends on risk appetite.
It will take 1 goal to wipe 3 clean sheets.
However, if I have 3 defenders from 3 different teams. Then it takes 3 goals to wipe 3 clean sheets.
The other scenario is most likely than the other. It just depends on risk appetite.
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Amazing @fpl-rumblefish.bsky.social !!!
Also almost all the games - there’s less than 50% chance of cleansheet anyway.
Now the interesting bit is at what clean sheet probability values do you decide to take a defender from another team. For me that’s simply if the other team has a better chance, but for you it’s not?
If Arsenal has 40% of cleansheets.
And Man City and Liverpool have 39%.
Would you choose 3 Arsenal instead or 1 from each team?
It will take 1 clean sheet to get 3 returns.
However, if I have 3 defenders from 3 separate teams, it will take 3 clean sheets to get 3 returns.
Projections had arsenal about 50% chance to keep a cs on Saturday
That is 50% chance for 3 defenders to return (and 50% chance to blank)
If I had 3 defenders with 50, 40 and 30% cs chance that is
6% chance for 3 returns
21% chance for 3 blanks
Defence of Gabriel/Gvardiol/RAN:
ARS CS% vs NFO = 46%
MCI CS% vs TOT = 31%
WOL CS% vs FUL = 12%
For ARS DEFs, only 1 clean sheet needs to occur so probability is 46%
For separate DEFs, multiply the 3 probabilities meaning ~1.7% for all 3 clean sheets
It is really difficult one but for me it really has nothing to do with psychology.
But the factors that really matter aren’t mathematical probabilities - they are blocking an ARS MID/FWD, DEF chance of an attacking return, DEF cost etc
ARS x 3 DEF = 54%
ARS/MCI/WOL DEF = 33%