The heat above 32°C in southeast England tomorrow will be 100 times more likely due to fossil fuel-driven warming 🌡️📈 Our super rapid study was published this morning. It is just the second time we’ve studied an event in real-time, using forecast data. It's been hot work. 🧵 - ThreadSky

wwattribution.bsky.social • 2 days ago

The heat above 32°C in southeast England tomorrow will be 100 times more likely due to fossil fuel-driven warming 🌡️📈

Our super rapid study was published this morning. It is just the second time we’ve studied an event in real-time, using forecast data. It's been hot work.

🧵

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wowbaggert.bsky.social•2 days ago

I'll go on record: it will be happening every year now.

wwattribution.bsky.social•2 days ago

It's been sweltering this week. A yellow heat-health alert was issued Tuesday, followed by a more severe amber alert for all of England yesterday. Soon after, dozens of people required treatment for heat-related illness at the Royal Ascot Races in heat above 29°C.

https://bsky.app/profile/chlobrim.bsky.social/post/3lry7wivf422f

wwattribution.bsky.social•2 days ago

Our analysis focused on a region of southeast England which uses a threshold of three consecutive days above 28oC to define heatwaves. We looked at the likelihood of the heatwave criteria being met in June and the chance of a single day in June reaching 32°C.

wwattribution.bsky.social•2 days ago

Before climate change, three hot June days over 28°C happened about once every 50 years. With 1.3°C of warming, it's now ten times more likely—around once every five years. June heatwaves are also 2 to 4°C hotter than they used to be.

wwattribution.bsky.social•2 days ago

Before humans burned vast quantities of oil, gas and coal, a day reaching 32°C in June would be extremely rare, expected only once every 2,500 years on average. Today, however, similarly hot days have become about 100 times more likely, occurring about once every 25 years.

wwattribution.bsky.social•2 days ago

The study highlights how even days above 28°C can be deadly. Older populations who live alone are most at risk, as their bodies can struggle to deal with existing health conditions in the heat and they can have difficulty calling for help when they become unwell.

wwattribution.bsky.social•2 days ago

New homes in England must now consider extreme heat, but most existing homes remain at risk. Poorer urban areas face higher temperatures due to dense housing and less green space. Policies to manage heat are fragmented and fall short of the growing threat.

unicornsrockuk.bsky.social•2 days ago

Or 30c in Yorkshire 🥵

timlagor.bsky.social•2 days ago

We're at +1.5C though they won't acknowledge that officially for a few years yet.

Does +1.5C take it up to 1/5? More?

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